Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
November 2026
Seattle MSA. Multifamily
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The Month in Three Parts
How We Got Here
The 2025 delivery boom left a hangover: 1,770 units delivered year to date through Q2 while 15,276 remained under construction [1].
Demand held up better than payrolls: conventional absorption totaled 7,131 units over 12 months, outpacing new supply [2].
The rate backdrop tightened then eased: the 10-year Treasury rose to 5.24% on Oct 1 before falling to 4.94% on Oct 30 [3][4].
SOFR rose from 3.87% on Oct 1 to 3.95% on Oct 30, and the Fed held its 3.75 to 4.00% target range on Oct 28 [5][6].
Washington's 2026 job forecast was cut to 0.1% in June, then revised up to 0.2% in September, while metro population grew 1.0% to 4,161,883 [7][8].
Where We Are Now
Seattle conventional occupancy reached 91.8% in October, up 0.9 points from a year ago, while effective rent slipped 0.3% to $2,160 and 32% of properties offered concessions[2].
Nationally, vacancy fell to 8.6% in the third quarter as asking rents rose 2.3% [9].
The average cap rate is 5.7%, about 68 basis points below the 6.38% agency 5-year fixed quote from Oct 26, so leverage remains negative [10][11].
Supply is lighter but not finished: 1,770 units delivered through Q2, 15,276 under construction, and 7,131 absorbed over 12 months [1][2].
Jobs remain the drag: Washington unemployment was 4.8% in September, the Seattle area is losing about 550 jobs a month, and October brought layoffs from Amazon, Oracle, Microsoft and Zillow [12][13].
Deals show pricing discipline: The Groves in Kent sold for $72 million, or $196,721 per unit, while Aperture on Fifth in Denny Triangle reached $304,245 per unit [14][15].
Where We're Headed
The next Fed meeting is Dec 9, and futures price about a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike [16].
Agency 5-year fixed debt quoted 6.23 to 6.38% on Oct 26, still above a 5.7% Seattle cap rate[11][10].
The next supply test is already visible: 15,276 units are under construction, with Denny Triangle, Overlake and Port Gardner carrying the largest projects [1][17].
Population is doing the work payrolls used to: the metro added 43,068 residents, 1.0%, in the year to Jul 1 2025 [8].
Global yields eased but stay elevated: U.S. 4.94% on Oct 30, UK 4.9062% on Oct 29, Germany 3.31% on Nov 2, Japan 2.817% on Oct 30, ECB 2.50% on Nov 2 [4][18][19][20][21].
What It Means for Seattle
Financing is still upside down. Seattle's 5.7% average cap rate sits about 68 basis points below the 6.38% agency 5-year fixed quote from Oct 26, so new debt only pencils with stronger rents or a lower basis [10][11].
Fundamentals are tightening slowly. Conventional occupancy reached 91.8% in October while effective rent slipped 0.3% to $2,160 and 32% of properties offered concessions; absorption of 7,131 units over 12 months still beat supply [2].
Supply is down, not gone. Seattle delivered 1,770 units through Q2 and had 15,276 under construction; the near-term lull helps occupancy, but Denny Triangle, Overlake and Port Gardner still hold large projects [1][17].
Deals show pricing discipline. The Groves in Kent sold for $72 million, or $196,721 per unit, and Aperture on Fifth reached $304,245 per unit, while the 524-unit Griffis North Creek trade showed institutional appetite at an undisclosed price [14][15][22].
Washington jobs set the ceiling. For Seattle, Washington's stalled labor market is the main check on rent growth: 2026 growth is forecast at 0.2%, the Seattle area is losing about 550 jobs a month, and population growth of 1.0% supports demand [7][13][8].
National rates pressure Seattle. The Fed held 3.75 to 4.00% on Oct 28, the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.94% on Oct 30, and futures price about a 75% chance of a hike at the Dec 9 meeting, keeping Seattle refinancing costs elevated [6][4][16].
Global yields reach Seattle loans. For Seattle borrowers, overseas yields still limit relief at home: the UK gilt was 4.9062% on Oct 29, Germany 3.31% on Nov 2 and Japan 2.817% on Oct 30, with the ECB deposit rate at 2.50% on Nov 2 [18][19][20][21].
Seattle Multifamily
Seattle conventional occupancy held at 91.8% in October, up 0.9 points from a year ago, while effective rent slipped 0.3% to $2,160 and 32% of properties offered concessions[2]. Absorption of 7,131 units over the past year outpaced new supply [2]. Nationally, vacancy fell to 8.6% in the third quarter as asking rents rose 2.3% [9]. The drag is jobs: Washington unemployment was 4.8% in September [12], and forecasters see just 0.2% employment growth for 2026 [23].
Vacancy down more than 90 basis points from Q4 2025 peak [9]
Tighter supply supports occupancy
Supply pressure by submarket
Denny Triangle, Overlake, Port Gardner (Everett) carry the largest projects [17]
Lynnwood and Snohomish suburbs active for trades [17]
Price trend
Pricing held while cap rates edged up
Sources: Cushman & Wakefield, Oct 14; ALN, Oct 31; Kidder Mathews, Sep 4 [9][1][2][17][10]
Seattle Submarket Snapshot
The largest cities in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Oct 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
MF units permitted, 2026 through Sep Census BPS [27]
2026 permit pace vs. 2025 annualized
Auburn
$1,568
+1.7%
0
0
None in 2025 or 2026
Bellevue
$2,391
+1.2%
293
1,489
+578%
Bothell
$2,361
+1.1%
143
0
-100%
Federal Way
$1,781
+0.7%
0
6
New: 6 units vs none in 2025
Lakewood
$1,515
+2.3%
388
20
-93%
Lynnwood
$1,728
-0.6%
60
0
-100%
Puyallup
$1,837
-0.8%
308
0
-100%
Redmond
$2,263
+1.5%
1,119
598
-29%
Renton
$2,042
+0.3%
0
0
None in 2025 or 2026
Seattle
$2,073
-2.1%
3,033
1,319
-42%
Shoreline
$1,899
-2.5%
11
570
+69x
Tacoma
$1,675
-1.2%
557
700
+68%
Seattle Transactions and Deal Flow
Five conventional apartment sales were reported in the last 60 days. The largest disclosed price was FPA Multifamily's $72 million purchase of The Groves in Kent, or $196,721 per unit [14]. In Seattle proper, Aperture on Fifth sold for $32.2 million [15] and Northline in Bitter Lake sold for $17.7 million [28]. GID added the 524-unit Griffis North Creek in Bothell at an undisclosed price [22]. Institutional buyers remain active across price points in this market.
Financing costs climbed into late October. Freddie Mac's 5-year fixed rate at 65% LTV quoted 6.23 to 6.38% on Oct 26, up roughly 30 to 50 basis points from late August [11]. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the month at 4.94% on Oct 30, down from 5.24% on Oct 1 [4][3]. SOFR held at 3.95% on Oct 30 [5]. Agency lending remains the workhorse, with a combined $176 billion purchase cap for 2026 and half of volume required to be mission-driven[30].
Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend
Indicative 5-year agency fixed rate at each dated quote. Hover the points.
Washington's labor market is stuck near zero. The September forecast puts 2026 state job growth at 0.2%, revised up from 0.1% in June, with 0.6% expected in 2027 [7]. The Seattle area is still losing about 550 jobs a month [13], and October brought fresh layoff announcements from Amazon, Oracle, Microsoft and Zillow [12]. Population growth of 1.0%, adding 43,068 residents in the year to Jul 1 2025, is doing the work payrolls used to [8].
Seattle sits mid-pack on vacancy with positive quarterly rent growth[36]
National Rates and the Fed
The Fed held its target range at 3.75 to 4.00% on Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote, with two dissents favoring another hike [6]. The 10-year Treasury eased to 4.94% on Oct 30 from 5.24% on Oct 1 [4], and the 30-year mortgage slipped to 7.24% in the week of Oct 29 [38]. September PCE inflation ran 3.6% headline and 3.1% core [39]. Futures now price about a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec 9 meeting [16].
Sources: U.S. Treasury and Freddie Mac, monthly averages through Oct 29, 2026; FRED for the 10-year before 2026 [4][33][42]
Global Backdrop
Global bond yields moved lower over the month. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.94% on Oct 30 [4], with the UK gilt at 4.9062% on Oct 29 [18], Germany at 3.31% on Nov 2 [19] and Japan at 2.817% on Oct 30 [20]. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Oct 28 [6], and the ECB deposit rate stood at 2.50% on Nov 2 [21]. Lower global yields ease pressure on U.S. borrowing costs.
10-Year Government Bond Yields
Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Oct 30; Bank of England, Oct 29; Deutsche Bundesbank, Nov 2; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 30 [4][18][19][20]
Global Policy and Risk Snapshot
Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into borrowing costs.
Disclosures. Compiled Nov 2, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Not investment advice.
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