Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
November 2026
San Antonio MSA. Multifamily
Get this monthly report by email.Receive the current San Antonio edition now and one report each month. Unsubscribe or change markets any time.
Request a monthly report for another market
Tell us the metro area. If there is enough interest we will add it as a standing monthly edition.
More markets are added as readers request them.
The Month in Three Parts
How We Got Here
San Antonio's supply wave peaked in late 2024 with more than 13,000 units delivered in 12 months, about 6% of inventory, and rents fell as owners used concessions to fill the new product.
By September 2026 conventional effective rent was down 3.6% year over year, and more than half of conventional properties offered concessions [1].
The Fed raised its target range a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.00% on Sep 16, and the 10-year Treasury climbed to 5.24% by Oct 1 [2].
Texas job growth ran 1.9% annualized in the first half of 2026, just below the state's 2% long-run average [3][4].
Nationally, the construction pipeline thinned to fewer than 480,000 units underway, tightening the future supply backdrop [5].
Where We Are Now
Conventional occupancy reached 86.7% in October, up 1.7% from a year earlier, as renters absorbed 6,680 units against 4,051 added over the trailing 12 months [1].
Effective rent fell 2.7% to $1,178 in October, a smaller decline than September's 3.6%, and 58% of conventional properties offer concessions averaging 9.6% of rent [1].
The pipeline has nearly emptied: 2,638 units under construction, and full-year 2026 deliveries are forecast near 2,600 units, down 63% from 2025 [6].
Financing costs sit high: the 10-year Treasury is 4.94% on Oct 30, SOFR is 3.95%, and the agency 5-year fixed rate quoted 6.23 to 6.38% on Oct 26 [7][8][9].
Negative leverage persists: an average cap rate of 6.0% against agency 5-year debt at 6.38% [6][9].
Metro population reached 2,813,140 on Jul 1 2025, up 1.4% from 2024, a steady demand base [10].
Where We're Headed
Futures price about a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec 9 Fed meeting[11].
With the pipeline nearly empty, 2027 deliveries will be a fraction of the 2024 peak; full-year 2026 deliveries are forecast near 2,600 units, down 63% from 2025 [6].
Occupancy is recovering ahead of rent; expect the year-over-year rent decline to narrow through 2027 as the remaining lease-ups stabilize [1].
The Dallas Fed cut its 2026 Texas employment forecast to 0.9% on Oct 19, with a range of 0.6 to 1.2% [4].
Deal flow is thin: Bridge Investment Group foreclosed on The Archer, a 376-unit community on Huebner Road with 251 market-rate units [12].
Global yields eased: UK gilts at 4.9062% on Oct 29, Japan at 2.817% on Oct 30 and the ECB deposit rate at 2.50% on Nov 2, all feeding into U.S. borrowing costs [13][14][15].
What It Means for San Antonio
Refinance math improved slightly. The Fed held its target range at 3.75 to 4.00% on Oct 28 and the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.94% on Oct 30 from 5.24% on Oct 1. San Antonio owners with 2027 maturities should model refinancing near the 6.38% agency 5-year rate quoted Oct 26 [16][7][9].
Negative leverage persists. San Antonio's average cap rate is 6.0% against 6.38% agency 5-year debt, about 38 basis points of negative leverage. Purchases only pencil with strong rent-growth conviction, seller financing or an assumed loan [6][9].
Occupancy is healing first. Conventional occupancy reached 86.7% in October, up 1.7% year over year, as absorption of 6,680 units outpaced the 4,051 added. Rent recovery follows once the remaining lease-ups fill [1].
Concessions are the real rent story.Effective rent fell 2.7% to $1,178 in October, and 58% of conventional properties offer concessions averaging 9.6% of rent. The decline should narrow as the remaining lease-ups stabilize [1].
Texas growth is slowing. Texas payrolls fell in September, year-to-date job growth slowed to 0.8%, and the Dallas Fed cut its 2026 forecast to 0.9% on Oct 19. For San Antonio, that means steady but unspectacular renter demand as lease-ups fill [4].
Washington sets your rate floor. The Fed's target range sits at 3.75 to 4.00%, futures price about a 75% chance of a hike on Dec 9, and the 10-year Treasury is 4.94%. San Antonio borrowing costs stay elevated into 2027 [16][11][7].
Global yields still shape San Antonio debt. UK gilts yield 4.9062%, Japan 2.817% and the ECB deposit rate is 2.50%, keeping global pressure on U.S. Treasury yields. That feeds directly into what San Antonio owners pay for debt [13][14][15].
San Antonio Multifamily
San Antonio conventional occupancy reached 86.7% in October, up 1.7% from a year earlier, as renters absorbed 6,680 units against 4,051 added over the trailing 12 months [1]. Effective rent fell 2.7% to $1,178, a smaller decline than September's 3.6%, and 58% of conventional properties now offer concessions averaging 9.6% of rent [1]. Occupancy is recovering first; rents follow once remaining lease-ups fill.
Thinnest pipeline of the four Texas metros relative to inventory [19]
Absorption vs. deliveries
Nearly 350K absorbed year to date, up 14% year over year [5]
6,680 absorbed vs 4,051 added, trailing 12 months through October [1]
Absorption about 1.6 times supply; occupancy up 1.7% year over year [1]
2026 vacancy forecast
Vacancy down more than 90 basis points from Q4 2025 peak [5]
Lease-up of 2024 to 2025 deliveries continues; occupancy 86.7% in October [1]
Headline vacancy falls as lease-ups stabilize; occupancy recovering ahead of rent [1]
Supply pressure by submarket
58% of conventional properties offer concessions, averaging 9.6% of rent [1]
Concession share up 16.4% and package depth up 14.4% year over year [1]
Rent trend, year over year
-2.7% conventional effective rent in October; asking rent -1.0% [1]
Decline deepened; occupancy still recovering ahead of rent
San Antonio Submarket Snapshot
The largest cities in the San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Oct 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
MF units permitted, 2026 through Sep Census BPS [23]
2026 permit pace vs. 2025 annualized
New Braunfels
$1,215
-7.2%
0
346
New: 346 units vs none in 2025
San Antonio
$1,115
-3.5%
1,401
440
-58%
Seguin
$881
-2.8%
0
0
None in 2025 or 2026
Universal City
$1,013
-7.3%
0
0
None in 2025 or 2026
San Antonio Transactions and Deal Flow
Two San Antonio-area apartment transactions were reported in the past 60 days: Bridge Investment Group foreclosed on The Archer, a 376-unit community on Huebner Road that includes 251 market-rate units [12], and Marcus & Millichap brokered the sale of the 49-unit Park Hill in Kerrville [24]. The foreclosure adds a distressed asset to the market, while the Kerrville sale shows continued liquidity for small deals.
Sources: yieldpro, Oct 17; REBusinessOnline, Sep 25 [12][24]
Multifamily Capital Markets
Financing costs climbed into late October. Freddie Mac's 5-year fixed rate at 65% LTV quoted 6.23 to 6.38% on Oct 26, up roughly 30 to 50 basis points from late August [9]. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the month at 4.94% on Oct 30, down from 5.24% on Oct 1 [7][2]. SOFR held at 3.95% on Oct 30 [8]. Agency lending remains the workhorse, with a combined $176 billion purchase cap for 2026 and half of volume required to be mission-driven[25].
Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend
Indicative 5-year agency fixed rate at each dated quote. Hover the points.
Texas lost momentum in the third quarter. Payrolls fell in September, pulling year-to-date job growth to 0.8%, well below the state's 2% long-run average [4]. The Dallas Fed cut its 2026 forecast to 0.9% on Oct 19, from 1.7% in August [4]. Manufacturing wage pressure also reversed, with the Dallas Fed index falling to 20.8 in October from 27.4 [31]. Slower state hiring tempers the demand tailwind behind DFW's absorption recovery.
The Fed held its target range at 3.75 to 4.00% on Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote, with two dissents favoring another hike [16]. The 10-year Treasury eased to 4.94% on Oct 30 from 5.24% on Oct 1 [7], and the 30-year mortgage slipped to 7.24% in the week of Oct 29 [38]. September PCE inflation ran 3.6% headline and 3.1% core [39]. Futures now price about a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec 9 meeting [11].
Sources: U.S. Treasury and Freddie Mac, monthly averages through Oct 29, 2026; FRED for the 10-year before 2026 [7][28][42]
Global Backdrop
Global bond yields moved lower over the month. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.94% on Oct 30 [7], with the UK gilt at 4.9062% on Oct 29 [13], Germany at 3.31% on Nov 2 [43] and Japan at 2.817% on Oct 30 [14]. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Oct 28 [16], and the ECB deposit rate stood at 2.50% on Nov 2 [15]. Lower global yields ease pressure on U.S. borrowing costs.
10-Year Government Bond Yields
Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Oct 30; Bank of England, Oct 29; Deutsche Bundesbank, Nov 2; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 30 [7][13][43][14]
Global Policy and Risk Snapshot
Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into borrowing costs.
Disclosures. Compiled Nov 2, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Not investment advice.
Privacy. If you open this report from our email, its link carries a private subscriber code, so your rating, comments and reading are linked to your subscription; otherwise the feedback bar and subscription form are anonymous unless you choose to enter an email. We store a first-party browser identifier, the issue you rated, your rating, optional comments, scroll depth and time on page, and a coarse referrer category (search, social, email, direct). We do not store IP addresses; a short-lived one-way hash is used only to limit abuse and is discarded daily. Subscriber emails are held in a mailing list separate from any product waitlist, are used only to send and improve this report, and are never sold or shared.
