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Monthly multifamily market intelligence

The Pierson Report

Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
November 2026
Phoenix MSA. Multifamily
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The Month in Three Parts

How We Got Here

  • Phoenix was the institutional favorite of 2021 to 2022; the supply that followed pushed conventional rents into a decline still running at -0.5% year over year in October [1].
  • Nationally, construction fell below 480,000 units underway, the lowest nominal level since 2015 [2].
  • The 10-year Treasury hit 5.24% on Oct 1 before easing to 4.94% on Oct 30 [3] [4].
  • The Fed raised its target range a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.00% on Sep 16, then held on Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote, two dissents favoring another hike [5].
  • Arizona hiring has been the weak link; the state projects job growth of just 1.0% annualized from Q2 2024 through Q2 2026 [6].

Where We Are Now

  • Demand is outrunning supply: 23,329 conventional units absorbed against 14,206 added over the 12 months through October [1].
  • Conventional occupancy reached 87.5% in October, up 3.2% year over year, lease-ups included [1].
  • Effective rents still fell 0.5% to $1,527, but asking rents turned positive, up 0.7% [1].
  • Half of conventional properties offer concessions averaging 10.0% of rent [1].
  • Negative leverage persists: a 5.8% average cap rate against agency 5-year debt quoted at 6.38% on Oct 26 [7] [8].
  • Inflation is still above target: September PCE ran 3.6% headline and 3.1% core [9]; SOFR stood at 3.95% on Oct 30 [10].

Where We're Headed

  • Rates: futures price about a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec 9 meeting [11].
  • Supply: the Phoenix pipeline has declined in 7 of the past 8 quarters and is the smallest since early 2021 [12].
  • Rents: with absorption well ahead of deliveries and asking rents already positive, the effective rent figure should keep closing on zero [1].
  • Jobs: the state Office of Economic Opportunity projects Arizona job growth of 1.0% annualized through Q2 2026 [6].
  • Water is the structural constraint: no new groundwater-only assured-supply approvals in the Phoenix AMA since June 2023, and HB 2722 extends the rule to build-to-rent [13].
  • Net: buyers are ahead of fundamentals; Millburn & Company paid $225,769 per unit for Ascend at Black Canyon in Deer Valley [14].

What It Means for Phoenix

  1. Refinance math is still tight. The Fed held at 3.75 to 4.00% on Oct 28 and the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.94% on Oct 30 [5] [4]. Phoenix owners with 2026 or 2027 maturities should model agency debt at the 6.38% quote of Oct 26 [8].
  2. Buyers remain ahead of rents. The average cap rate held at 5.8% while conventional effective rents fell 0.5% to $1,527 [7] [1]. The bet is on the shrinking pipeline, not current income.
  3. The pipeline supports the bet. Phoenix absorbed 23,329 conventional units against 14,206 added over 12 months, and the construction pipeline is the smallest since early 2021 [1] [12]. Occupancy already recovered to 87.5% [1].
  4. Deals are clearing anyway. Four Valley transactions were reported since early September, led by the $58.7 million Ascend at Black Canyon sale on Sep 25 and the $47.8 million Astor at Osborn trade on Oct 1 [14] [15].
  5. Arizona's economy is the weak link. Arizona projects job growth of just 1.0% annualized through Q2 2026 [6]. Population gains, up 59,065 to 5,228,938 residents in the year to July 2025, are carrying Phoenix apartment demand [16].
  6. National rates set Phoenix's floor. With the Fed at 3.75 to 4.00%, the 10-year Treasury at 4.94% and futures pricing a 75% chance of a Dec 9 hike, Phoenix borrowing costs stay elevated into 2027 [5] [4] [11].
  7. Global yields reach Phoenix too. UK gilts at 4.9062%, Germany at 3.31% and Japan at 2.817% keep pressure on Treasuries, and the ECB deposit rate stood at 2.50% on Nov 2 [17] [18] [19] [20]. Higher global yields feed Phoenix mortgage pricing.

Phoenix Multifamily

Phoenix conventional occupancy reached 87.5% in October, up 3.2% year over year, as renters absorbed 23,329 units against 14,206 added over the past 12 months [1]. Effective rents fell 0.5% to $1,527, but asking rents turned positive, up 0.7% [1]. Half of conventional properties offer concessions averaging 10.0% of rent [1]. The average cap rate held at 5.8% [7].

Average cap rate
Rent growth
-0.5%
Effective rent, October 2026
ALN, Oct 31 [1]
Occupancy (conventional)
87.5%
October 2026; includes lease-ups
ALN, Oct 31 [1]
Population growth
+1.1%
2025 metro estimate; 5.23M residents
Census, Vintage 2025 [16]

Phoenix Cap Rate Range by Asset Class

Estimated class bands set around the 5.8% average (Kidder Mathews, Q2 2026); no class-level cap rates were published.
Range chart of Phoenix estimated cap rates by class4%5%6%7%Class A5.1 to 5.5%Class B5.6 to 6.2%Class C6.3 to 7.2%avg 5.8%debt 6.38%
Estimated cap rate rangeMarket averageAgency loan rate
Sources: Kidder Mathews, Q2 2026 [7] [8]

Phoenix vs. National Fundamentals

Phoenix conventional effective rent fell 0.5% in October; U.S. asking rents rose 2.3% in Q3. Local vacancy remains above national. [1] [2]
Rent growth, year over year0%-2%-4%+2%Phoenix-0.5%U.S.+2.3%Vacancy0%5%10%15%Phoenix12.5%U.S.8.6%
PhoenixUnited States
Sources: ALN, Oct 31; Cushman & Wakefield, Oct 14 [1] [2] [21] [22]

Supply Pipeline, U.S. and Phoenix

Absorption is outpacing deliveries nationally and in Phoenix, and the national construction pipeline is the smallest since 2015. [2] [1]
MetricNationalPhoenixRead-through
Deliveries250K+ year to date through Q3, down 25% year over year [2]Trailing 12-month unit change 14,206 through Oct [1]Fewer completions ease lease-up pressure [1]
Under constructionFewer than 480K units underway, lowest nominal level since 2015 [2]Pipeline declined in 7 of past 8 quarters; lowest since early 2021 [12]Fewer starts today mean less competing supply in 2027 and 2028
Absorption vs. deliveriesNearly 350K absorbed year to date, up 14% year over year [2]23,329 absorbed vs 14,206 added over 12 months through Oct [1]Absorption exceeds deliveries in both [2] [1]
2026 outlookVacancy down more than 90 basis points from Q4 2025 peak [2]Asking rents turned positive, +0.7% YoY in Oct [1]Effective rents still down 0.5%; half of properties offer concessions [1]
Supply pressure by submarketMost active trades: Mesa, Gilbert, Peoria; in-city Deer Valley, Uptown, Biltmore [12]Investment concentrated in newer assets [12]
Price trendCap rates compressing ahead of rent recovery [7]

Phoenix Submarket Snapshot

The largest cities in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Oct 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
SubmarketMedian rent
Apartment List, Oct 2026 [23]		Rent, year over year
Apartment List [24]		MF units permitted, 2025
Census BPS [25]		MF units permitted, 2026 through Sep
Census BPS [26]		2026 permit pace vs. 2025
annualized
Avondale$1,312-0.3%28658-73%
Chandler$1,586+0.7%5260-100%
Gilbert$1,696-0.4%679283-44%
Glendale$1,209-2.1%00None in 2025 or 2026
Goodyear$1,540-1.4%7000-100%
Mesa$1,282-2.4%9351,140+63%
Peoria$1,395-2.9%176336+155%
Phoenix$1,250-2.5%6,5053,506-28%
Surprise$1,641-4.7%623444-5%

Phoenix Transactions and Deal Flow

Phoenix apartment deal flow stayed active into the fall, led by the $58.7 million sale of the 260-unit Ascend at Black Canyon in Deer Valley, where builder DR Horton exited a 2024-vintage asset to Millburn & Company [14]. Midtown's Astor at Osborn traded for $47.8 million, or $250,262 per unit [15]. Developers also pushed ahead: Origin Investments and Mill Creek Residential plan the 190-unit Modera Old Town in Scottsdale [27], and Evergreen Development bought 11.7 acres in Mesa for a mixed-use project [28].

PropertySubmarketUnitsBuyer / SellerPrice / CapReported
Ascend at Black CanyonPhoenix, Deer Valley (28201 N. Black Canyon Hwy)260Millburn & Company; sold by DR Horton [14]$58.7M ($225,769 per unit) [14]Sep 25 [14]
Astor at OsbornPhoenix, Midtown (7th Ave at Osborn)191Keech Properties; seller undisclosed (IPA) [15]$47.8M ($250,262 per unit) [15]Oct 1 [15]
Modera Old Town (development)Scottsdale, Old Town190Origin Investments and Mill Creek Residential, developers [27]Construction begins October; completion slated for mid-2029 [27]Oct 29 [27]
Evergreen Development land siteMesaUndisclosedEvergreen Development, buyer; seller undisclosed [28]Undisclosed; 11.7-acre mixed-use project with multifamily and retail [28]Sep 8 [28]

Multifamily Capital Markets

Financing costs climbed into late October. Freddie Mac's 5-year fixed rate at 65% LTV quoted 6.23 to 6.38% on Oct 26, up roughly 30 to 50 basis points from late August [8]. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the month at 4.94% on Oct 30, down from 5.24% on Oct 1 [4] [3]. SOFR held at 3.95% on Oct 30 [10]. Agency lending remains the workhorse, with a combined $176 billion purchase cap for 2026 and half of volume required to be mission-driven [29].

Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend

Indicative 5-year agency fixed rate at each dated quote. Hover the points.
6.4%6.0%5.6%5.2%4.8%Jan 20Mar 9Aug 315.42%5.29%6.07%
Sources: BWE, Oct 26 [8]

Lending Landscape

Programs, caps, and terms relevant to multifamily owners.
ItemCurrentSource
Agency 2026 purchase cap$88B each, $176B totalFHFA, Nov 24 [29]
Mission-driven minimum50%FHFA, Nov 24 [29]
Freddie Mac 5-year fixed, higher leverage (1.25x / 65%)6.23-6.38%BWE, Oct 26 [8]
Fannie Mae 5 / 7 / 10-year, 65% LTV, 1.35x5.95-6.35% / 5.98-6.38% / 6.01-6.41%BWE, Oct 26 [8]
Freddie Mac 5 / 7 / 10-year, 60% LTV, 1.30x6.18-6.33% / 6.19-6.34% / 6.10-6.25%BWE, Oct 26 [8]
Max LTV / min DSCRAgency tiers run to 80% LTV at 1.25x; best pricing at 55 to 65% LTV and 1.35 to 1.55x. Loans actually closing averaged 63.3% LTV and 1.43x in Q2BWE, Aug 31; CBRE, Q2 2026 [30]
Bridge floating, bank / balance sheetSOFR + 225 to 325 bp (about 6.1 to 7.1% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)Crittenden; New York Fed , Oct 1 (Estimated)
Bridge floating, debt fundSOFR + 300 to 450 bp (about 6.9 to 8.4% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)RRA Capital; New York Fed, Oct 1 (Estimated)
Multifamily rate range (all products)5.43% to 6.63%Northmarq, Aug 25 [31]
30-year home mortgage (context)7.24%Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 29 [32]
Sources: BWE, Oct 26 [29] [8] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34]

Arizona

Arizona's economy is growing slowly, and population gains rather than hiring are carrying Phoenix apartment demand. The state Office of Economic Opportunity projects job growth of 1.0% annualized from Q2 2024 through Q2 2026 [6]. Metro Phoenix added 59,065 residents in the year to July 2025, up 1.1% to 5,228,938 residents [16]. For owners, migration-driven demand keeps absorption tied to in-migration holding up.

Arizona job growth, 2025
0.1%
Weakest outside a recession in decades
Eller College [35]
2026 forecast
0.5%
Eller; alternative forecast 0.9%
Eller College [35]
Phoenix 2026 forecast
0.7%
Up from 0.3% in 2025
Eller College [35]
OEO projection
1.0%
Estimated
Estimate

Arizona and Phoenix Job Growth

0%1%2%Arizona 20250.1%Arizona 2026 fcst0.5%Phoenix 20250.3%Phoenix 2026 fcst0.7%
Sources: Eller College of Management / Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity [35] [6]

State-Level Operating Factors

Costs and policy that hit Phoenix net operating income directly.
FactorStatusRead-through
Property insuranceExposure to wildfire, flash flood and severe storms drives multifamily premiums (Estimated)Less severe than Texas or Georgia; still rising
Property taxMaricopa County Assessor 2025-2026 Full Cash Value analysis published; multifamily change not itemized in the public summary [36]Arizona's Prop 117 caps annual limited-value growth at 5% [36]
Population and migrationMetro Phoenix +59,065 in the year to Jul 2025; 5,228,938 residents, up 1.1% [16]Population growth, not hiring, is carrying apartment demand [16]
Water policyNo new groundwater-only assured-supply approvals in the Phoenix AMA since June 2023; HB 2722 extends the requirement to build-to-rent [13]Constrains new supply outside water-served cities; supports existing stock [13]
Peer metros (Q2 2026)DFW rents -1.6 to -2.1% YoY; Atlanta vacancy 7.2%; Charlotte vacancy 4.0% [37]Phoenix leads the group on absorption [37]
Sources: Census Bureau, Jul 2025; Arizona OEO, Sep 4 [36] [16] [13] [37] [38]

National Rates and the Fed

The Fed held its target range at 3.75 to 4.00% on Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote, with two dissents favoring another hike [5]. The 10-year Treasury eased to 4.94% on Oct 30 from 5.24% on Oct 1 [4], and the 30-year mortgage slipped to 7.24% in the week of Oct 29 [39]. September PCE inflation ran 3.6% headline and 3.1% core [9]. Futures now price about a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec 9 meeting [11].

10-Year Treasury
4.94%
Oct 30. Down from 5.24% on Oct 1
U.S. Treasury, Oct 30 [4] [3]
Fed Funds Target
3.75 to 4.00%
Held Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote
Federal Reserve, Oct 28 [5] [40]
SOFR
3.95%
Oct 30. Up from 3.87% on Oct 1
New York Fed, Oct 30 [10]
Next Fed Meeting
Dec 9
Futures price about a 75% chance of a hike
CME FedWatch via CNBC, Nov 1 [11]
CPI / PCE
3.4% / 3.6%
Jul CPI 3.4%. Sep PCE 3.6% (core 3.1%)
BLS, Aug 12; BEA, Oct 29 [41] [9]

The Rate Stack: How a Phoenix Loan Gets Priced

Stacked from the policy rate to what a borrower pays: Fed midpoint 3.875% [40], Treasury 4.94% Oct 30 [4], agency 6.38% Oct 26.
Fed Funds midpoint 3.875%+1.07%+1.44% spread10-year Treasury 4.94%Agency 5-year 6.38%0%
Policy rate (Treasury)Term premium (Treasury)Lender spreadAll-in loan rate
Sources: Federal Reserve, Oct 28; U.S. Treasury, Oct 30; Capital Markets, Oct 26 [40] [4] [8]

10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today

The 30-year mortgage sits 2.30 points over the 10-year Treasury, above the 1980 to date average of 1.84 points [32] [4].
10-Year Treasury
4.94%
Daily close, Oct 30
U.S. Treasury, Oct 30 [4]
30-Year Mortgage
7.24%
Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 29
Freddie Mac, Oct 29 [32]
Spread, latest month
2.30 pts
1980 to date average 1.84 pts
Freddie Mac, Oct 29; Treasury, Oct 30 [32] [4]
0%4%8%12%16%024198019841988199219962000200420082012201620202024Spread, percentage points
30-year fixed mortgage (Freddie Mac)10-year TreasurySpread
Sources: U.S. Treasury and Freddie Mac, monthly averages through Oct 29, 2026; FRED for the 10-year before 2026 [4] [32] [42]

Global Backdrop

Global bond yields moved lower over the month. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.94% on Oct 30 [4], with the UK gilt at 4.9062% on Oct 29 [17], Germany at 3.31% on Nov 2 [18] and Japan at 2.817% on Oct 30 [19]. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Oct 28 [5], and the ECB deposit rate stood at 2.50% on Nov 2 [20]. Lower global yields ease pressure on U.S. borrowing costs.

10-Year Government Bond Yields

Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
0%2%4%6%United States4.94%United Kingdom4.91%Germany3.31%Japan2.82%
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Oct 30; Bank of England, Oct 29; Deutsche Bundesbank, Nov 2; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 30 [4] [17] [18] [19]

Global Policy and Risk Snapshot

Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into borrowing costs.
FactorStatusWhy Phoenix cares
European Central BankDeposit facility 2.50% on Nov 2 [20]Keeps global yields anchored higher and funding costs elevated
Bank of EnglandBank Rate 3.75% on Oct 30 [17]Gilt yields at 4.9062% on Oct 29, an inflation worry [17]
Bank of JapanPolicy rate 1.25%, held Oct 31 [43]. JGB 10-year 2.817% on Oct 30 [19]Less Japanese demand for Treasuries, so higher U.S. yields
Oil and energyElevated Hormuz supply risk (Estimated)Energy prices feed into inflation and the Fed's policy posture
U.S. dollarIndex 99.16 on Sep 4, down 0.5% over the month and up 1.4% year to date (Estimated)A weaker dollar makes U.S. property cheaper for foreign buyers
Sources: ECB, Nov 2; Bank of England, Oct 30; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 30 [20] [17] [19] [43] [44] [45]

Sources

Show the 45 sources cited in this edition
  1. ALN Apartment Data: Monthly Market Review, conventional properties, Phoenix, October 2026
  2. Cushman & Wakefield: U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat
  3. U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 10-year
  4. U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 10-year
  5. Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, Oct 28, 2026
  6. Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity: 2024-2026 Industry Employment Projections
  7. Kidder Mathews: Phoenix Multifamily Market Report Q2 2026
  8. BWE: RHS 538 GRRHP Property types Affordable housing Build-to-rent Hospitality Industrial Manufactured housi
  9. BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026
  10. New York Fed: Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) data
  11. CNBC: 3 big things were watching in the stock market this week
  12. Northmarq: Phoenix multifamily market insights
  13. Arizona Department of Water Resources / arizonawater.info: Assured Water Supply in Arizona
  14. Connect CRE: N. Phoenix Apartments Trade for $58.7M
  15. REBusiness: IPA Brokers $47.8M Sale of Astor at Osborn Apartments in Phoenix
  16. Census: Metropolitan statistical area population estimates, Vintage 2025
  17. Bank of England: Database series IUDBEDR, Bank Rate
  18. Bundesbank: Daily yield of the current 10-year Federal bond
  19. Japan Ministry of Finance: Japanese Government Bonds interest rate, 10-year
  20. ECB: Key ECB interest rates, deposit facility
  21. Cushman & Wakefield: MarketBeat Dallas/Fort Worth Multifamily Q3 2026
  22. ALN Apartment Data: Monthly Market Review, conventional properties, Dallas-Fort Worth, October 2026
  23. Apartment List: Apartment List rent estimates, Oct 2026
  24. Apartment List: Apartment List rent growth year over year, Oct 2026
  25. Census: Survey,State,6-Digit,County,Census Place,FIPS Place,FIPS MCD,Pop,CSA,CBSA,Footnote,Central,Zip,Region,Division,Number of,Place,,1-unit,,,2-units,,,3-4 units,,,5+ units,,,1-unit rep,,,2-units rep,,,3-4 units rep,,,5+ units rep Date,Code,ID,C
  26. Census: Survey,State,6-Digit,County,Census Place,FIPS Place,FIPS MCD,Pop,CSA,CBSA,Footnote,Central,Zip,Region,Division,Number of,Place,,1-unit,,,2-units,,,3-4 units,,,5+ units,,,1-unit rep,,,2-units rep,,,3-4 units rep,,,5+ units rep Date,Code,ID,C
  27. REBusiness: REBusinessOnline Search Monday, November 2, 2026 Read the Digital Magazines Subscribe to the Magazines Subscribe Search Search Slate
  28. REBusiness: Evergreen Development Acquires 11.7 Acres in Mesa, Arizona, Plans Mixed-Use Project
  29. FHFA: U.S. Federal Housing Announces 2026 Multifamily Loan Purchase Caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
  30. BWE: Market Rates, as of Aug 31, 2026
  31. Northmarq: Commercial mortgage rates and spreads, as of Aug 25, 2026
  32. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey history
  33. The Crittenden Report: Bridge lenders are flocking to multifamily
  34. RRA Capital: The bridge lending market floodgates will open in 2026
  35. Eller College of Management: Arizona's Economy Rebounds After a Weak 2025
  36. Maricopa County Assessor: Reports, 2025-2026 Full Cash Value Analysis
  37. CRE Daily: Dallas Multifamily Rents Slide in 2026
  38. Multifamily.loans: Arizona Multifamily Insurance Guide
  39. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates
  40. New York Fed: Effective Federal Funds Rate data, with target range
  41. BLS: Consumer Price Index, July 2026
  42. FRED: DGS10, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity
  43. Trading Economics: News Summary Stats Forecast Alerts Actual 2.7720 Daily Change 0.002% Monthly -0.33% Yearly 1.
  44. Trading Economics: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), 99.16 on Sep 4, 2026
  45. U.S. Energy Information Administration: Brent and WTI spot prices (Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1, 2026)
Disclosures. Compiled Nov 2, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Not investment advice.
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