Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
November 2026
College Station-Bryan MSA. Multifamily
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The Month in Three Parts
How We Got Here
Agency 5-year debt quoted 6.38% on Oct 26 while the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.94% on Oct 30 from 5.24% on Oct 1 [1][2][3].
Texas job growth slowed from 1.9% annualized in H1 to 0.8% year to date through Sep, below the 2% long-run average [4][5].
National construction thinned to fewer than 480K units underway while College Station's largest filed projects target Jun 2028 [6][7].
Metro population reached 287,476 on Jul 1 2025, up 0.5%, leaving enrollment and the academic calendar as the demand engine [8].
Local conventional supply stayed minimal over the past year even as national deliveries topped 250K year to date through Q3 [9][6].
Where We Are Now
ALN puts October conventional occupancy at 90.6%, down 1.5% year over year, with effective rent down 1.2% to $1,100 [9].
Concessions keep spreading: 33% of conventional properties offer them, averaging 6.9% of rent [9].
Twelve-month absorption was negative 229 units against 84 added, so demand fell short of supply [9].
Local vacancy near 9.4% sits above U.S. vacancy of 8.6% in Q3; national asking rents rose 2.3% [9][6].
Financing costs remain high: 10-year Treasury 4.94% Oct 30, SOFR 3.95% Oct 30, agency 5-year 6.38% Oct 26 [2][10][1].
The 30-year mortgage was 7.24% in the week of Oct 29, keeping for-sale alternatives expensive [11].
Where We're Headed
The Fed held 3.75 to 4.00% Oct 28; futures price about a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike Dec 9 [12][13].
Underwrite agency debt near 6.38% and floating money off SOFR 3.95% until pricing clearly breaks lower [1][10].
Oaks Reserve broke ground with 312 Bryan units, but the next large dated wave remains Rambler Northgate and Ariza Summit Crossing in Jun 2028 [14][7].
No major conventional completions are expected before mid-2028, giving concessions time to burn off [7][9].
Texas forecast cut to 0.9% and modest metro population growth point to slower demand rather than a new boom [5][8].
What It Means for College Station
Refinance math stays tight. The 10-year Treasury was 4.94% on Oct 30, SOFR 3.95%, and agency 5-year debt 6.38% on Oct 26. College Station owners with 2026 to 2027 maturities should model lower proceeds and higher coupons [2][10][1].
Pricing still needs discipline.Effective rent fell 1.2% to $1,100 in October and concessions average 6.9% at 33% of conventional properties. College Station buyers should underwrite softer collections, not headline asking rents [9].
Fundamentals are soft, not broken. October conventional occupancy was 90.6%, down 1.5% year over year, with negative 229 units absorbed against 84 added. College Station still has institutional student demand, but lease-up discipline matters [9].
Supply pressure is dated, not gone. Oaks Reserve started 312 Bryan units, while Rambler Northgate and Ariza Summit Crossing target Jun 2028. College Station has time to work through concessions before the next test [14][7].
Texas momentum helps only modestly. Texas cut its 2026 job forecast to 0.9% on Oct 19 after year-to-date growth slowed to 0.8%. For College Station, state hiring supports demand, but enrollment and the academic calendar drive apartments [5].
National credit sets the ceiling. The Fed held 3.75 to 4.00% on Oct 28, futures price a possible Dec hike, and U.S. vacancy is 8.6%. College Station pricing and refinance terms will follow national credit more than local headlines [12][13][6].
Global yields still reach Bryan. The UK gilt was 4.9062% on Oct 29, Germany 3.31% on Nov 2, Japan 2.817% on Oct 30, and the ECB deposit rate 2.50% on Nov 2. Lower global yields would ease College Station borrowing costs [15][16][17][18].
College Station-Bryan Multifamily
College Station-Bryan conventional occupancy was 90.6% in October, down 1.5% from a year earlier, and effective rent fell 1.2% to $1,100 [9]. Concessions keep spreading: 33% of conventional properties now offer them, averaging 6.9% of rent [9]. Apartment List shows the city median down 2.1% to $1,237 [19]. Nationally, asking rents rose 2.3% and vacancy fell to 8.6% in Q3 [6]. The next big local deliveries are dated 2028.
The largest cities in the College Station-Bryan, TX metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Oct 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
One conventional sale and one construction start were reported in the 60 days to Nov 2. MMG Real Estate Advisors arranged the sale of The Element at University Park, a 192-unit community in Bryan built in 2000, reported Oct 5 [29]. Teeple Partners broke ground on Oaks Reserve, a 312-unit market-rate project in Bryan, reported Oct 14 [14].
Financing costs climbed into late October. Freddie Mac's 5-year fixed rate at 65% LTV quoted 6.23 to 6.38% on Oct 26, up roughly 30 to 50 basis points from late August [1]. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the month at 4.94% on Oct 30, down from 5.24% on Oct 1 [2][3]. SOFR held at 3.95% on Oct 30 [10]. Agency lending remains the workhorse, with a combined $176 billion purchase cap for 2026 and half of volume required to be mission-driven[30].
Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend
Indicative 5-year agency fixed rate at each dated quote. Hover the points.
Texas lost momentum in the third quarter. Payrolls fell in September, pulling year-to-date job growth to 0.8%, well below the state's 2% long-run average [5]. The Dallas Fed cut its 2026 forecast to 0.9% on Oct 19, from 1.7% in August [5]. Manufacturing wage pressure also reversed, with the Dallas Fed index falling to 20.8 in October from 27.4 [35]. Slower state hiring tempers the demand tailwind behind DFW's absorption recovery.
The Fed held its target range at 3.75 to 4.00% on Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote, with two dissents favoring another hike [12]. The 10-year Treasury eased to 4.94% on Oct 30 from 5.24% on Oct 1 [2], and the 30-year mortgage slipped to 7.24% in the week of Oct 29 [41]. September PCE inflation ran 3.6% headline and 3.1% core [42]. Futures now price about a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec 9 meeting [13].
Sources: U.S. Treasury and Freddie Mac, monthly averages through Oct 29, 2026; FRED for the 10-year before 2026 [2][11][45]
Global Backdrop
Global bond yields moved lower over the month. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.94% on Oct 30 [2], with the UK gilt at 4.9062% on Oct 29 [15], Germany at 3.31% on Nov 2 [16] and Japan at 2.817% on Oct 30 [17]. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Oct 28 [12], and the ECB deposit rate stood at 2.50% on Nov 2 [18]. Lower global yields ease pressure on U.S. borrowing costs.
10-Year Government Bond Yields
Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Oct 30; Bank of England, Oct 29; Deutsche Bundesbank, Nov 2; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 30 [2][15][16][17]
Global Policy and Risk Snapshot
Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into borrowing costs.
Disclosures. Compiled Nov 2, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Not investment advice.
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