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Monthly multifamily market intelligence

The Pierson Report

Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
November 2026
Austin MSA. Multifamily
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The Month in Three Parts

How We Got Here

  • Austin's downturn came from a supply wave: the pipeline peaked at 19.67% of inventory in Q1 2023; Q2 2026 completions of 2,898 units were down 56.4% from a year earlier [1].
  • Q2 brought the first quarterly rent gain since fall 2022, up 1.3%; Class A rents were down 0.8% year over year, Class B 3.9% and Class C 11.6% [2].
  • Demand kept pace: renters absorbed 15,109 conventional units over 12 months, nearly double the 7,884 added [3].
  • Metro population rose 2.1% to 2.62 million in 2025, adding demand as starts and permits fell [4] [1].
  • Debt stayed expensive: agency 5-year fixed quoted 6.23 to 6.38% on Oct 26 against a 5.41% Q2 average cap rate, roughly 80 to 100 basis points of negative leverage [5] [1].

Where We Are Now

  • The turn is holding: October conventional occupancy was 88.3%, up 3.3% from a year earlier, and effective rents of $1,457 rose 0.4% [3].
  • Demand still leads supply: 15,109 conventional units absorbed over 12 months versus 7,884 added [3].
  • Austin trails the nation: U.S. asking rents rose 2.3% to $1,950 in Q3 and vacancy fell to 8.6%, while Austin conventional vacancy was 11.7% in October [6] [3].
  • Concessions remain common: 63% of conventional properties offer them, averaging 10.7% of rent [3].
  • Buyers returned: Knightvest bought 1,027 North Austin units reported Sep 3; Weidner added 341 near The Domain and ORIX 322 south-central [7] [8] [9].
  • Debt costs eased at the long end: the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.94% on Oct 30 from 5.24% on Oct 1; SOFR was 3.95% on Oct 30 [10] [11] [12].

Where We're Headed

  • The Fed held at 3.75 to 4.00% on Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote, with two dissents favoring another hike [13].
  • Futures price about a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec 9 meeting [14].
  • Supply relief continues: under construction fell to 14,610 units, 4.55% of inventory, in Q2, and Q2 completions were down 56.4% from a year earlier [1].
  • Texas growth is slower: payrolls fell in September, year-to-date job growth is 0.8%, and the Dallas Fed cut its 2026 forecast to 0.9% on Oct 19 [15].
  • Inflation keeps pressure: September PCE ran 3.6% headline and 3.1% core [16].
  • Global yields eased: UK gilts 4.9062% on Oct 29, Germany 3.31% on Nov 2, Japan 2.817% on Oct 30; the ECB deposit rate was 2.50% on Nov 2 [17] [18] [19] [20].

What It Means for Austin

  1. Refinance math stays tight. Austin owners facing 2026 or 2027 maturities should underwrite agency 5-year debt at 6.23 to 6.38% from Oct 26, with SOFR at 3.95% on Oct 30 keeping floating-rate bridge money expensive [5] [12].
  2. Negative leverage still caps pricing. Austin's 5.41% Q2 average cap rate sits below the 6.23 to 6.38% agency 5-year quotes from Oct 26, roughly 80 to 100 basis points of negative leverage, so buyers need rent growth or lower bases to clear returns [1] [5].
  3. Fundamentals are improving from low base. October conventional occupancy reached 88.3%, up 3.3% from a year earlier, and effective rents of $1,457 rose 0.4%; Q2 brought the first quarterly rent gain since fall 2022, though 63% of properties still offer concessions [3] [2].
  4. Supply wave is finally thinning. Austin absorbed 15,109 conventional units over 12 months against 7,884 added, under construction fell to 4.55% of inventory in Q2, and Knightvest's 1,027-unit purchase shows capital returning [3] [1] [7].
  5. Slower Texas growth still supports Austin. Texas payrolls fell in September and the Dallas Fed cut its 2026 job growth forecast to 0.9% on Oct 19, but Austin still benefits from metro population growth of 2.1% to 2.62 million in 2025 [15] [4].
  6. National rates set Austin's ceiling. For Austin, the Fed's Oct 28 hold at 3.75 to 4.00% and futures pricing about a 75% chance of a Dec 9 hike mean coupons stay high even as the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.94% on Oct 30 [13] [14] [10].
  7. Global yields reach Austin loans. Austin borrowing costs stay sensitive to foreign bond markets: UK gilts were 4.9062% on Oct 29, Germany 3.31% on Nov 2 and Japan 2.817% on Oct 30, with the ECB deposit rate at 2.50% on Nov 2 [17] [18] [19] [20].

Austin Multifamily

Austin's recovery is holding. Conventional occupancy reached 88.3% in October, up 3.3% from a year earlier, while effective rents of $1,457 rose 0.4% from a year earlier [3]. Renters absorbed 15,109 conventional units over the past 12 months, nearly double the 7,884 added [3]. Q2 brought the first quarterly rent gain since fall 2022, up 1.3% [2]. With the construction pipeline down to 4.55% of inventory and metro population up 2.1% to 2.62 million [1] [4], the supply-demand balance keeps improving.

Average cap rate
5.41%
Q2 2026 average, all classes
Matthews, Aug 12 [1]
Rent growth
+0.4%
Effective rent, October 2026
ALN, Oct 31 [3]
Occupancy (conventional)
88.3%
October 2026; includes lease-ups
ALN, Oct 31 [3]
Population growth
+2.1%
2025 metro estimate; 2.62M residents
Census, Vintage 2025 [4]

Austin Cap Rate Range by Asset Class

Estimated class bands set around the 5.41% average (Matthews, Aug 12); no class-level cap rates were published.
Range chart of Austin estimated cap rates by class4%5%6%7%Class A4.7 to 5.1%Class B5.2 to 5.8%Class C5.9 to 6.8%avg 5.41%debt 6.38%
Estimated cap rate rangeMarket averageAgency loan rate
Sources: Matthews, Aug 12 [1] [5]

Austin vs. National Fundamentals

Austin conventional effective rents rose 0.4% in October versus a 2.3% U.S. gain; vacancy of 11.7% topped the 8.6% national rate [3] [6].
Rent growth, year over year0%-2%-4%+2%Austin+0.4%U.S.+2.3%Vacancy0%5%10%15%Austin11.7%U.S.8.6%
AustinUnited States
Sources: ALN, Oct 31; Cushman & Wakefield, Oct 14 [3] [6] [21] [22]

Supply Pipeline, U.S. and Austin

Austin absorbed 15,109 conventional units over 12 months against 7,884 added, while Q2 completions fell 56.4% year over year [3] [1].
MetricNationalAustinRead-through
Deliveries250K+ year to date through Q3, down 25% year over year [6]2,898 units in Q2, down 56.4% from a year ago [1]Austin's pipeline is thinning as starts and permits fall [1]
Under constructionFewer than 480K units underway, lowest nominal level since 2015 [6]14,610 units, 4.55% of inventory, in Q2 [1]Down from 19.67% of inventory at the Q1 2023 peak [1]
Absorption vs. deliveriesNearly 350K absorbed year to date, up 14% year over year [6]6,306 absorbed vs 2,898 delivered in Q2; 15,109 absorbed over 12 months [1] [3]Demand exceeded supply by nearly two to one over the past year [3]
2026 vacancy forecastVacancy down more than 90 basis points from Q4 2025 peak [6]Conventional occupancy 88.3% in Oct, up 3.3% YoY [3]Rents rose 1.3% in Q2, first quarterly gain since fall 2022 [2]
Supply pressure by submarketEast Austin 14.4%, Northeast 12.4%, Southeast 9.5% of inventory under construction; ten of 25 submarkets have none [1]63% of conventional properties offer concessions, averaging 10.7% of rent [3]
Rent trend by class, year over yearClass A -0.8%; Class B -3.9%; Class C -11.6% [2]Top of market stabilizing first; older product still repricing [2]

Austin Submarket Snapshot

The largest cities in the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Oct 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
SubmarketMedian rent
Apartment List, Oct 2026 [23]		Rent, year over year
Apartment List [24]		MF units permitted, 2025
Census BPS [25]		MF units permitted, 2026 through Sep
Census BPS [26]		2026 permit pace vs. 2025
annualized
Austin$1,323-1.3%6,4594,395-9%
Cedar Park$1,452+0.8%00None in 2025 or 2026
Georgetown$1,363+5.3%3080-100%
Kyle$1,249-7.8%3860-100%
Leander$1,494+0.4%3720-100%
Pflugerville$1,411-2.8%423100-68%
Round Rock$1,318+0.7%3160-100%
San Marcos$1,056-6.1%00None in 2025 or 2026

Austin Transactions and Deal Flow

Austin deal flow stayed active from early September into late October: Knightvest bought a 1,027-unit North Austin portfolio at an undisclosed price described as a big discount [7], Weidner and ORIX added 663 units in two sales [8][9], HPI started 396 units near The Domain [27], and River Junction refinanced with a $46.5 million bridge loan [28].

PropertySubmarketUnitsBuyer / SellerPrice / CapReported
Enclave at La Frontera (411), Lakeside at La Frontera (366), Legends Lake Creek (250) [7]Round Rock and North Austin [7]1,027 [7]Knightvest Capital; sold by LYND (Newmark) [7]Undisclosed, big discount to prior trade [7]Sep 3 [7]
Solaris House Apartments [8]North Austin, Domain submarket [8]341 [8]Weidner Apartment Homes; sold by Brandywine (JLL) [8]Undisclosed [8]Oct 26 [8]
Strata [9]South-central Austin [9]322 [9]ORIX Corp USA; sold by Maverick Development Group [9]Undisclosed [9]Oct 9 [9]
The Kent [27]North Austin, near The Domain [27]396 [27]HPI Real Estate Services & Investments; development [27]Development [27]Oct 16 [27]
River Junction [28]Leander [28]329 [28]Walker & Dunlop; borrower undisclosed [28]$46.5M bridge loan [28]Sep 8 [28]

Multifamily Capital Markets

Financing costs climbed into late October. Freddie Mac's 5-year fixed rate at 65% LTV quoted 6.23 to 6.38% on Oct 26, up roughly 30 to 50 basis points from late August [5]. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the month at 4.94% on Oct 30, down from 5.24% on Oct 1 [10] [11]. SOFR held at 3.95% on Oct 30 [12]. Agency lending remains the workhorse, with a combined $176 billion purchase cap for 2026 and half of volume required to be mission-driven [29].

Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend

Indicative 5-year agency fixed rate at each dated quote. Hover the points.
6.4%6.0%5.6%5.2%4.8%Jan 20Mar 9Aug 315.42%5.29%6.07%
Sources: BWE, Oct 26 [5]

Lending Landscape

Programs, caps, and terms relevant to multifamily owners.
ItemCurrentSource
Agency 2026 purchase cap$88B each, $176B totalFHFA, Nov 24 [29]
Mission-driven minimum50%FHFA, Nov 24 [29]
Freddie Mac 5-year fixed, higher leverage (1.25x / 65%)6.23-6.38%BWE, Oct 26 [5]
Fannie Mae 5 / 7 / 10-year, 65% LTV, 1.35x5.95-6.35% / 5.98-6.38% / 6.01-6.41%BWE, Oct 26 [5]
Freddie Mac 5 / 7 / 10-year, 60% LTV, 1.30x6.18-6.33% / 6.19-6.34% / 6.10-6.25%BWE, Oct 26 [5]
Max LTV / min DSCRAgency tiers run to 80% LTV at 1.25x; best pricing at 55 to 65% LTV and 1.35 to 1.55x. Loans actually closing averaged 63.3% LTV and 1.43x in Q2BWE, Aug 31; CBRE, Q2 2026 [30]
Bridge floating, bank / balance sheetSOFR + 225 to 325 bp (about 6.1 to 7.1% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)Crittenden; New York Fed , Oct 1 (Estimated)
Bridge floating, debt fundSOFR + 300 to 450 bp (about 6.9 to 8.4% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)RRA Capital; New York Fed, Oct 1 (Estimated)
Multifamily rate range (all products)5.43% to 6.63%Northmarq, Aug 25 [31]
30-year home mortgage (context)7.24%Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 29 [32]
Sources: BWE, Oct 26 [29] [5] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34]

Texas

Texas lost momentum in the third quarter. Payrolls fell in September, pulling year-to-date job growth to 0.8%, well below the state's 2% long-run average [15]. The Dallas Fed cut its 2026 forecast to 0.9% on Oct 19, from 1.7% in August [15]. Manufacturing wage pressure also reversed, with the Dallas Fed index falling to 20.8 in October from 27.4 [35]. Slower state hiring tempers the demand tailwind behind DFW's absorption recovery.

Texas job growth, H1 2026
1.9% annualized
Year to date through Sep: 0.8%
Dallas Fed, Aug 17 and Oct 19 [36] [15]
2026 employment forecast
0.9%
Cut Oct 19 from 1.7%. Range 0.6 to 1.2%
Dallas Fed, Oct 19 [15]
Manufacturing wage index
20.8
Oct reading, down from 27.4 in Sep
Dallas Fed, Oct 26 [35]
Labor supply
Tightening
Unemployment 4.4% in Sep, unchanged from Aug
Dallas Fed, Oct 19 [15]

Texas Job Growth vs. Long-Run Average

Annualized job growth versus the state's 2% long-run average. Hover bars.
0%1%2%Long-run avg2%H1 20261.9%2026 YTD0.8%2026 fcst0.9%
Sources: Dallas Fed, Aug 17 and Oct 19 [15] [36]

State-Level Operating Factors

Costs and policy that hit Austin net operating income directly.
FactorStatusRead-through
Property insuranceTexas FAIR Plan residential rate changes took effect Sep 1 [37]First renewals at the new rates land this quarter; commercial multifamily policies are priced separately [37]
Property tax2026 apartment appraisals: Travis County up 5.4 to 6.4%, to $57.9B (Estimated)Far milder than Dallas (+19.6%) and Tarrant (+23.8%) (Estimated)
Population and migrationMetro population 2.62M on Jul 1, 2025, up 2.1% for the year [4]A steady demand tailwind that helps offset slower job growth
Energy sectorBrent $96.02 and WTI $91.48 on Sep 1; Strait of Hormuz flows 4.9 million barrels a day in Q2 versus 21.6 million before the conflict [39]Supports Houston and Permian jobs; indirect Austin benefit
Peer metros (Q2 2026)Texas metros are turning at the same time
Sources: TFPA Jul 1; Census Bureau Jul 1; Northmarq Aug 19 [37] [38] [4] [39] [40] [41] [42]

National Rates and the Fed

The Fed held its target range at 3.75 to 4.00% on Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote, with two dissents favoring another hike [13]. The 10-year Treasury eased to 4.94% on Oct 30 from 5.24% on Oct 1 [10], and the 30-year mortgage slipped to 7.24% in the week of Oct 29 [43]. September PCE inflation ran 3.6% headline and 3.1% core [16]. Futures now price about a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec 9 meeting [14].

10-Year Treasury
4.94%
Oct 30. Down from 5.24% on Oct 1
U.S. Treasury, Oct 30 [10] [11]
Fed Funds Target
3.75 to 4.00%
Held Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote
Federal Reserve, Oct 28 [13] [44]
SOFR
3.95%
Oct 30. Up from 3.87% on Oct 1
New York Fed, Oct 30 [12]
Next Fed Meeting
Dec 9
Futures price about a 75% chance of a hike
CME FedWatch via CNBC, Nov 1 [14]
CPI / PCE
3.4% / 3.6%
Jul CPI 3.4%. Sep PCE 3.6% (core 3.1%)
BLS, Aug 12; BEA, Oct 29 [45] [16]

The Rate Stack: How an Austin Loan Gets Priced

Stacked from the policy rate to what a borrower pays: Fed midpoint 3.875% [44], Treasury 4.94% Oct 30 [10], agency 6.38% Oct 26.
Fed Funds midpoint 3.875%+1.07%+1.44% spread10-year Treasury 4.94%Agency 5-year 6.38%0%
Policy rate (Treasury)Term premium (Treasury)Lender spreadAll-in loan rate
Sources: Federal Reserve, Oct 28; U.S. Treasury, Oct 30; Capital Markets, Oct 26 [44] [10] [5]

10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today

The 30-year mortgage sits 2.30 points over the 10-year Treasury, above the 1980 to date average of 1.84 points [32] [10].
10-Year Treasury
4.94%
Daily close, Oct 30
U.S. Treasury, Oct 30 [10]
30-Year Mortgage
7.24%
Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 29
Freddie Mac, Oct 29 [32]
Spread, latest month
2.30 pts
1980 to date average 1.84 pts
Freddie Mac, Oct 29; Treasury, Oct 30 [32] [10]
0%4%8%12%16%024198019841988199219962000200420082012201620202024Spread, percentage points
30-year fixed mortgage (Freddie Mac)10-year TreasurySpread
Sources: U.S. Treasury and Freddie Mac, monthly averages through Oct 29, 2026; FRED for the 10-year before 2026 [10] [32] [46]

Global Backdrop

Global bond yields moved lower over the month. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.94% on Oct 30 [10], with the UK gilt at 4.9062% on Oct 29 [17], Germany at 3.31% on Nov 2 [18] and Japan at 2.817% on Oct 30 [19]. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Oct 28 [13], and the ECB deposit rate stood at 2.50% on Nov 2 [20]. Lower global yields ease pressure on U.S. borrowing costs.

10-Year Government Bond Yields

Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
0%2%4%6%United States4.94%United Kingdom4.91%Germany3.31%Japan2.82%
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Oct 30; Bank of England, Oct 29; Deutsche Bundesbank, Nov 2; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 30 [10] [17] [18] [19]

Global Policy and Risk Snapshot

Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into borrowing costs.
FactorStatusWhy Austin cares
European Central BankDeposit facility 2.50% on Nov 2 [20]Keeps global yields anchored higher and funding costs elevated
Bank of EnglandBank Rate 3.75% on Oct 30 [17]Gilt yields at 4.9062% on Oct 29, an inflation worry [17]
Bank of JapanPolicy rate 1.25%, held Oct 31 [47]. JGB 10-year 2.817% on Oct 30 [19]Less Japanese demand for Treasuries, so higher U.S. yields
Oil and energyElevated Hormuz supply risk (Estimated)Energy prices feed into inflation and the Fed's policy posture
U.S. dollarIndex 99.16 on Sep 4, down 0.5% over the month and up 1.4% year to date (Estimated)A weaker dollar makes U.S. property cheaper for foreign buyers
Sources: ECB, Nov 2; Bank of England, Oct 30; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 30 [20] [17] [19] [47] [48] [49]

Sources

Show the 49 sources cited in this edition
  1. Matthews: Austin Multifamily Market Report Q2 2026
  2. realpage.com: Austin 2nd quarter rent growth
  3. ALN Apartment Data: Monthly Market Review, conventional properties, Austin, October 2026
  4. Census: Metropolitan statistical area population estimates, Vintage 2025
  5. BWE: RHS 538 GRRHP Property types Affordable housing Build-to-rent Hospitality Industrial Manufactured housi
  6. Cushman & Wakefield: U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat
  7. REBusiness: Newmark Arranges Sale of 1,027-Unit Multifamily Portfolio in North Austin
  8. yieldpro.com: Solaris house apartments
  9. Connect CRE: ORIX Buys 322-Unit Austin Apartment Community
  10. U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 10-year
  11. U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 10-year
  12. New York Fed: Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) data
  13. Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, Oct 28, 2026
  14. CNBC: 3 big things were watching in the stock market this week
  15. Dallas Fed: Dallas Fed: Texas employment forecast weakens
  16. BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026
  17. Bank of England: Database series IUDBEDR, Bank Rate
  18. Bundesbank: Daily yield of the current 10-year Federal bond
  19. Japan Ministry of Finance: Japanese Government Bonds interest rate, 10-year
  20. ECB: Key ECB interest rates, deposit facility
  21. Cushman & Wakefield: MarketBeat Dallas/Fort Worth Multifamily Q3 2026
  22. ALN Apartment Data: Monthly Market Review, conventional properties, Dallas-Fort Worth, October 2026
  23. Apartment List: Apartment List rent estimates, Oct 2026
  24. Apartment List: Apartment List rent growth year over year, Oct 2026
  25. Census: Building Permits Survey, places, 2025 annual
  26. Census: Building Permits Survey, places, year to date through Sep 2026
  27. REBusiness: HPI Breaks Ground on 396-Unit Multifamily Project in North Austin
  28. REBusiness: Walker & Dunlop Arranges $46.5M Loan for Refinancing of Metro Austin Apartment Community
  29. FHFA: U.S. Federal Housing Announces 2026 Multifamily Loan Purchase Caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
  30. BWE: Market Rates, as of Aug 31, 2026
  31. Northmarq: Commercial mortgage rates and spreads, as of Aug 25, 2026
  32. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey history
  33. The Crittenden Report: Bridge lenders are flocking to multifamily
  34. RRA Capital: The bridge lending market floodgates will open in 2026
  35. Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
  36. Dallas Fed: Momentum builds in the Texas economy; wage pressures broaden
  37. Texas FAIR Plan: Texas FAIR Plan Association TFPA Approved Rate Changes and Annual Adjustment Updates
  38. Houston Chronicle: New 19-story student housing tower near Texas A&M
  39. EIA: Independent Statistics and Analysis U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Analysis & Projections Short-Term Ene
  40. Matthews: Dallas-Fort Worth, TX Multifamily Market Report Q2 2026
  41. Northmarq: Houston Multifamily Market Insights
  42. Northmarq: Houston Multifamily Market Insights
  43. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates
  44. New York Fed: Effective Federal Funds Rate data, with target range
  45. BLS: Consumer Price Index, July 2026
  46. FRED: DGS10, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity
  47. Trading Economics: News Summary Stats Forecast Alerts Actual 2.7720 Daily Change 0.002% Monthly -0.33% Yearly 1.
  48. Trading Economics: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), 99.16 on Sep 4, 2026
  49. U.S. Energy Information Administration: Brent and WTI spot prices (Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1, 2026)
Disclosures. Compiled Nov 2, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Not investment advice.
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