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Monthly multifamily market intelligence

The Pierson Report

Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
October 2026
Miami MSA. Multifamily
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The Month in Three Parts

How We Got Here

  • A delivery wave and slowing migration flattened rents after the 2021 to 2022 run-up; trailing 12-month absorption of 8,615 units through September now runs ahead of 2,649 deliveries through April [1] [2].
  • Nationally, construction fell to 475,000 units, 3.5% of inventory, while Q2 deliveries of 88,000 ran 27% below a year earlier [3].
  • Agency 5-year fixed quotes climbed from 5.29% on Mar 9 to 6.07% on Aug 31 as the 10-year Treasury rose from 4.78% on Sep 4 to 5.24% on Oct 1 [4] [5].
  • The Fed held rates through midyear, then raised its target range a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.00% on Sep 16 in a unanimous vote [6].
  • Miami pricing stayed rich through the shift: cap rates near 5.0% at $325,921 per unit, up 15.7% year over year in Q1 [7].

Where We Are Now

  • Conventional occupancy reached 88.7% at the end of September, up 3.4% year over year, and asking rent rose 2.4% to $2,739; effective rent gained 1.5% [1].
  • Submarkets diverge: rents up in Overtown (+12.8%) and Miami Beach (+9.7%), down in Brickell, Homestead, Opa-locka and Little Haiti [2].
  • Supply is still large: 15,481 units under construction, 7.3% of inventory, though starts fell to 6,813 from 8,592 [8].
  • Sales volume slipped to $894 million in the first four months as hopes for near-term supply relief faded [2].
  • Inflation is still above target: July CPI 3.4% (core 2.5%), August PCE 3.4% (core 3.0%). SOFR stood at 3.87% on Oct 1 [9] [10] [11].
  • Pricing gap: cap rates near 5.0% against agency 5-year debt at 6.07% on Aug 31, about 107 basis points of negative leverage [7] [4].

Where We're Headed

  • After a weak September jobs report, futures price about an 86% chance the Fed holds at its Oct 27 to 28 meeting [12].
  • The 10-year Treasury at 5.24% on Oct 1 keeps agency 5-year fixed rates near the 6.07% Aug 31 quote, with refinancing costs elevated into 2027 [5] [4].
  • Supply: 15,481 units under construction, 7.3% of inventory, means near-term relief has faded, and sales volume is slowing as a result [8].
  • Florida job growth slowed to 1.2% in 2025 and is forecast at 0.6 to 0.8% for 2026, with unemployment rising from 3.8% toward 4.3%.
  • Metro population edged down 0.1% to 6,391,072 in 2025, so demand growth now depends on absorbing the existing pipeline [13].
  • Insurance is easing: Florida commercial property premiums fell 16.6% year over year through Q1 2026, and Miami-Dade taxable value growth slowed to 5.5% [14] [15].

What It Means for Miami

  1. Refinance math has moved against Miami owners. Agency 5-year debt quoted 6.07% on Aug 31 against cap rates near 5.0%, about 107 basis points of negative leverage. Owners with 2026 or 2027 maturities should model refinancing at 6.0 to 6.5% [4] [7].
  2. Priced for growth that is slowing. Cap rates near 5.0% and $325,921 per unit, up 15.7% year over year, sit against flat population and a 0.6 to 0.8% state job growth forecast for 2026 [7] [13].
  3. Supply relief is not coming yet. Miami has 15,481 units under construction, 7.3% of inventory, with starts down to 6,813 from 8,592. Absorption of 8,615 units over 12 months is strong, but the pipeline keeps deliveries coming into 2027 [8] [1].
  4. Deals are clearing at reset prices. Fairfield paid $208 million for the 812-unit Portofino Place, and Harbor Group bought the 505-unit Emerald Palms for $109 million, about $215,800 per unit and roughly its 2021 price. Financing remains available for well-located projects [16] [17].
  5. Florida costs are easing for Miami. Florida commercial property premiums fell 16.6% year over year through Q1 2026, and Miami-Dade taxable value growth slowed to 5.5%. Slower state job growth, forecast at 0.6 to 0.8% for 2026, tempers the benefit for Miami rents [14] [15].
  6. National rates set Miami's floor. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75 to 4.00% on Sep 16, the 10-year Treasury hit 5.24% on Oct 1, and futures price an 86% chance of a hold on Oct 27 to 28. Miami borrowing costs stay elevated [6] [5] [12].
  7. Global yields keep pressure on Miami. The UK gilt yielded 4.92% on Sep 30, Germany 3.60% and Japan 3.09% on Oct 1, and the ECB deposit rate reached 2.50% on Oct 2. Higher global yields feed into U.S. borrowing costs, including Miami mortgages [18] [19] [20] [21].

Miami Multifamily

Miami conventional apartments tightened through September: occupancy reached 88.7%, up 3.4% year over year, and asking rent rose 2.4% to $2,739 [1]. Deliveries slowed to 2,649 units through April, and sales volume slipped to $894 million in the first four months [2]. The metro population edged down 0.1% to 6,391,072 in 2025 [13].

Average cap rate
~5.0%
$325,921 per unit, +15.7% YoY in Q1
Colliers South Florida, Sep 4 [7]
Rent growth
+1.5%
Effective rent, September 2026
ALN, Sep 30 [1]
Occupancy (conventional)
88.7%
September 2026; includes lease-ups
ALN, Sep 30 [1]
Population growth
-0.1%
2025 metro estimate; 6.39M residents
Census, Vintage 2025 [13]

Miami Cap Rate Range by Asset Class

Estimated class bands set around the 5% average (Colliers South Florida, Sep 4); no class-level cap rates were published.
Range chart of Miami estimated cap rates by class4%5%6%7%Class A4.3 to 4.7%Class B4.8 to 5.4%Class C5.5 to 6.4%avg 5%debt 6.07%
Estimated cap rate rangeMarket averageAgency loan rate
Sources: Colliers South Florida, Sep 4 [7] [4]

Miami vs. National Fundamentals

Miami conventional asking rents rose 2.4% in September while national vacancy fell to 8.9% in Q2 [1] [3].
Rent growth, year over year0%-2%-4%+2%Miami+1.5%U.S.+1.5%Vacancy0%5%10%15%Miami11.3%U.S.8.9%
MiamiUnited States
Sources: ALN, Sep 30; Cushman & Wakefield, Jul 14 [1] [3]

Supply Pipeline, U.S. and Miami

Miami absorbed 8,615 conventional units over the 12 months through September, against 2,649 deliveries through April [1] [2].
MetricNationalMiamiRead-through
Deliveries88K in Q2, down 27% from a year ago [3]2,649 units through April, 0.7% of stock [2]Miami running slightly above the national pace [2]
Under construction475,000 units, 3.5% of inventory [3]15,481 units, 7.3% of inventory [8]Starts down to 6,813 from 8,592 [8]
Absorption vs. deliveries362K absorbed vs 358K delivered, four quarters [3]8,615 absorbed, trailing 12 months [1]Demand running ahead of new supply [1]
2026 outlookPeaked, now tightening [3]Supply relief hopes fading; sales slowing [22]Cap rates steady near 5.0% [7]
Supply pressure by submarketRents up in Overtown (+12.8%) and Miami Beach (+9.7%); down in Brickell, Homestead, Opa-locka, Little Haiti [2]Urban core diverging from the delivery-heavy west and south [2]
Price trend$325,921 per unit, +15.7% YoY (Colliers Q1) [7]Priced for growth

Miami Submarket Snapshot

The largest cities in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Sep 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
SubmarketMedian rent
Apartment List, Sep 2026 [23]		Rent, year over year
Apartment List [24]		MF units permitted, 2025
Census BPS [25]		MF units permitted, 2026 through Aug
Census BPS [26]		2026 permit pace vs. 2025
annualized
Boca Raton$2,418-0.3%00n/a, no 2025 permits
Boynton Beach$1,926+2.4%392707+171%
Coral Springs$1,968+4.0%00n/a, no 2025 permits
Fort Lauderdale$1,875-0.8%1,052359-49%
Hialeah$1,713-0.3%1,039177-74%
Hollywood$1,513-2.0%00n/a, no 2025 permits
Miami$1,926+0.1%6,8633,255-29%
Miami Beach$1,781+1.2%110-100%
Pembroke Pines$1,876+0.6%00n/a, no 2025 permits
Plantation$2,088-0.6%8297+55x
Sunrise$1,965-0.6%030n/a, no 2025 permits
West Palm Beach$1,802+3.6%0415n/a, no 2025 permits

Miami Transactions and Deal Flow

Late-summer deal flow across South Florida mixed big financings with priced sales. Terra Group closed a $245 million bridge loan for the first phase of Upland Park in Sweetwater [27], and Fairfield paid $208 million for the 812-unit Portofino Place in West Palm Beach [16]. Harbor Group bought the 505-unit Emerald Palms in Kendall for $109 million [17], while lenders funded new construction in Edgewater [28].

PropertySubmarketUnitsBuyer / SellerPrice / CapReported
Upland Park, Phase IASweetwater578Terra Group; $245M bridge loan from SCALE Lending for the first phase of a $1B, 47-acre transit-oriented redevelopment [27]FinancingSep 1 [27]
Portofino PlaceWest Palm Beach812Fairfield bought from Cortland [16]$208M [16]Sep 1 [16]
Sense22Edgewater328HA Emprendimientos; $111M construction loan arranged by JLL through S3 Capital [28]FinancingJul 10 [28]
Emerald PalmsKendall/The Hammocks505Harbor Group bought from Milestone [17]$109M, about $215,800 per unit [17]Aug 6 [17]
Pointe Verde Beach LakesWest Palm Beach400Undisclosed buyer, a New Jersey apartment operator; IPA brokered the sale [29]$90.5M; buyer plans multifamily conversion [29]Aug 7 [29]

Multifamily Capital Markets

Financing costs moved up into October: the 30-year home mortgage rate hit 7.28% in the week of Oct 1, up 57 basis points from 6.71% on Sep 3, and the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.24% on Oct 1 [30][31][5]. Agency lending remains the workhorse for apartment deals, with a combined $176 billion purchase cap for 2026 and half of volume required to be mission-driven [32]. SOFR stood at 3.87% on Oct 1, keeping floating-rate bridge money near 6 to 8% [11].

Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend

Indicative 5-year agency fixed rate at each dated quote. Hover the points.
6.4%6.0%5.6%5.2%4.8%Jan 20Mar 9Aug 315.42%5.29%6.07%
Sources: BWE, Aug 31 [4]

Lending Landscape

Programs, caps, and terms relevant to multifamily owners.
ItemCurrentSource
Agency 2026 purchase cap$88B each, $176B totalFHFA, Nov 24 [32]
Mission-driven minimum50%FHFA, Nov 24 [32]
Freddie Mac 5-year fixed, higher leverage (1.25x / 65%)5.92-6.07%BWE, Aug 31 [4]
Fannie Mae 5 / 7 / 10-year, 65% LTV, 1.35x5.56-5.96% / 5.62-6.02% / 5.68-6.08%BWE, Aug 31 [4]
Freddie Mac 5 / 7 / 10-year, 60% LTV, 1.30x5.87-6.02% / 5.92-6.07% / 5.88-6.03%BWE, Aug 31 [4]
Max LTV / min DSCRAgency tiers run to 80% LTV at 1.25x; best pricing at 55 to 65% LTV and 1.35 to 1.55x. Loans actually closing averaged 63.3% LTV and 1.43x in Q2BWE, Aug 31; CBRE, Q2 2026 [4]
Bridge floating, bank / balance sheetSOFR + 225 to 325 bp (about 6.1 to 7.1% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)Crittenden; New York Fed, Oct 1 [33] [11]
Bridge floating, debt fundSOFR + 300 to 450 bp (about 6.9 to 8.4% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)RRA Capital; New York Fed, Oct 1 [34] [11]
Multifamily rate range (all products)5.43% to 6.63%Northmarq, Aug 25 [35]
30-year home mortgage (context)7.28%Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 1 [30]

Florida

Florida’s cost pressure is easing while Miami demand flattens: commercial property premiums fell 16.6% YoY through Q1 2026 [14], Miami-Dade taxable value rose 5.5% for 2026 [15], and metro population was 6,391,072 on Jul 1 2025, down 0.1% [13]. For owners, lower insurance and slower assessments help NOI, but flat population limits rent growth.

Florida job growth, 2025
1.2%
Slowed from prior years
UCF Winter 2026 Forecast [36]
2026 forecast
0.6 to 0.8%
UCF; averages 0.6% through 2029
UCF [36]
Unemployment path
3.8% to 4.3%
2025 to 2026 forecast
UCF [36]
Insurance premiums
-16.6%
FL commercial property, YoY through Q1 2026
FSResidential, Sep 4 [14]

Florida Job Growth

Florida cost relief now matters more than job growth for Miami apartment NOI. [14]
0%1%2%Florida 20251.2%Florida 2026 fcst0.8%U.S. 2026 fcst0.5%Texas 2026 fcst1.7%
Sources: FSResidential, Sep 4 [36] [37] [14] [38]

State-Level Operating Factors

Costs and policy that hit Miami net operating income directly.
FactorStatusRead-through
Property insuranceFlorida commercial property premiums down 16.6% YoY through Q1 2026; associations still spend 25 to 35% of budgets on insurance [14]First relief after four years of increases [14]
Property taxMiami-Dade 2026 taxable value $540.7B, up 5.5%, 3.2 points slower than 2025 [15]Assessment growth is decelerating with the market [15]
Population and migrationMetro population 6,391,072 on Jul 1 2025, down 0.1% from 2024 [13]Demand growth has flattened [13]
Key sectorStatewide payrolls +1.2% in 2025; Central Florida expected to lead the state in 2026 [36]Miami growth now below the state average
Peer metros (Q2 2026)Atlanta vacancy 7.2%, rents -1.0% . Charlotte vacancy 4.0%, rents +12.1% . DFW rents -1.6 to -2.1% [39]Miami is the highest-priced Sun Belt market with the flattest rents

National Rates and the Fed

The Fed raised its target range a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.00% on Sep 16 in a unanimous vote, the first hike since July 2023 [6]. The 10-year Treasury reached 5.24% on Oct 1, up from 4.78% on Sep 4 [5], and the 30-year mortgage hit 7.28% in the week of Oct 1 [30]. August PCE inflation ran 3.4% headline and 3.0% core [10]. After a weak September jobs report, futures price about an 86% chance the Fed holds at its Oct 27 to 28 meeting [12].

10-Year Treasury
5.24%
Oct 1. Up from 4.78% on Sep 4
U.S. Treasury, Oct 1 [5]
Fed Funds Target
3.75 to 4.00%
Raised Sep 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote
Federal Reserve, Sep 16 [6] [40]
SOFR
3.87%
Oct 1. Up from 3.66% on Sep 3
New York Fed, Oct 1 [11]
Next Fed Meeting
Oct 27 to 28
Futures price about an 86% chance of a hold
CME FedWatch via CNBC, Oct 1 [12]
CPI / PCE
3.4% / 3.4%
Jul CPI 3.4% (core 2.5%). Aug PCE 3.4% (core 3.0%)
BLS, Aug 12; BEA, Sep 30 [9] [10]

The Rate Stack: How a Miami Loan Gets Priced

Stacked from the Fed's policy rate up to what a borrower actually pays. Hover each layer.
Fed Funds midpoint 3.875%+1.37%+0.83% spread10-year Treasury 5.24%Agency 5-year 6.07%0%
Policy rate (Treasury)Term premium (Treasury)Lender spreadAll-in loan rate
Sources: Federal Reserve, Sep 16; U.S. Treasury, Oct 1 [40] [5] [4] [6]

10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today

The mortgage rate sets the cost of buying a house; the gap over the Treasury is what the market has added since 2022.
10-Year Treasury
5.24%
Daily close, Oct 1
U.S. Treasury, Oct 1 [5]
30-Year Mortgage
7.28%
Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 1
Freddie Mac, Oct 1 [30]
Spread, latest month
2.04 pts
1980 to date average 1.84 pts
Freddie Mac, Oct 1; FRED, Sep 4 [30] [5] [42]
0%4%8%12%16%024198019841988199219962000200420082012201620202024Spread, percentage points
30-year fixed mortgage (Freddie Mac)10-year TreasurySpread
Sources: U.S. Treasury and Freddie Mac, monthly averages through Oct 1, 2026; FRED for the 10-year before 2026 [5] [30] [41]

Global Backdrop

Global bond yields moved higher again as central banks kept tightening. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 5.24% on Oct 1 [5], with the UK gilt at 4.92% on Sep 30 [18], Germany at 3.60% [19] and Japan at 3.09% on Oct 1 [20]. The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on Sep 16 [43], and the ECB deposit rate reached 2.50% on Oct 2 [21]. Higher global yields feed directly into U.S. borrowing costs.

10-Year Government Bond Yields

Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
0%2%4%6%United States5.24%United Kingdom4.92%Germany3.60%Japan3.09%
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Oct 1; Bank of England, Sep 30; Deutsche Bundesbank, Oct 1; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 1 [5] [18] [19] [20]

Global Policy and Risk Snapshot

Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into borrowing costs.
FactorStatusWhy Miami cares
European Central BankDeposit facility 2.50% on Oct 2, raised from 2.25% effective Sep 16 [21] [44]The second ECB increase of this cycle; keeps global yields anchored higher
Bank of EnglandBank Rate 3.75% on Oct 1 [18]Gilt yields at 4.92% on Sep 30, an inflation worry [18]
Bank of JapanPolicy rate 1.00%, held Jul 31 [45]. JGB 10-year 3.09% on Oct 1 [20]Less Japanese demand for Treasuries, so higher U.S. yields
Oil and energyElevated Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1; Hormuz flows 4.9 million barrels a day in Q2 [47]Plus for Texas jobs and royalties; minus for inflation and Fed posture
U.S. dollarIndex 99.16 on Sep 4, down 0.5% over the month and up 1.4% year to date [46]A weaker dollar makes U.S. property cheaper for foreign buyers

Sources

Show the 47 sources cited in this edition
  1. ALN Apartment Data: Monthly Market Review, conventional properties, Miami, September 2026
  2. Yardi Matrix: Miami Multifamily Market Report
  3. Cushman & Wakefield: U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat
  4. BWE: Market Rates, as of Aug 31, 2026
  5. U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 10-year
  6. Federal Reserve: Monetarypolicy
  7. Colliers: South Florida Multifamily Market Report Q1 2026
  8. Cushman and Wakefield: U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat
  9. BLS: Consumer Price Index, July 2026
  10. BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026
  11. New York Fed: Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) data
  12. CNBC: Stock market today live updates
  13. Census: Metropolitan statistical area population estimates, Vintage 2025
  14. FirstService Residential: Florida condo and association insurance costs 2026
  15. Miami-Dade Property Appraiser: 2026 estimated taxable values
  16. REBusiness: Fairfield Acquires 812-Unit Apartment Community in West Palm Beach from Cortland for $208M
  17. commercialobserver.com: HGI Buys Rental Near Zoo Miami for $109M
  18. Bank of England: Database series IUDBEDR, Bank Rate
  19. Bundesbank: Daily yield of the current 10-year Federal bond
  20. Japan Ministry of Finance: Japanese Government Bonds interest rate, 10-year
  21. ECB: Key ECB interest rates, deposit facility
  22. Bisnow: Miami multifamily nose-dives as hopes for supply relief fade
  23. Apartment List: Apartment List rent estimates, Sep 2026
  24. Apartment List: Apartment List rent growth year over year, Sep 2026
  25. Census: Building Permits Survey, places, 2025 annual
  26. Census: Building Permits Survey, places, year to date through Aug 2026
  27. REBusiness: SCALE Lending Provides $245M Loan for First Phase of Upland Park Apartments in Miami
  28. REBusiness: JLL Arranges $111M Construction Loan for Multifamily Development in Miami’s Edgewater District
  29. REBusiness: IPA Brokers $90.5M Sale of West Palm Beach Condos, Buyer Plans Multifamily Conversion
  30. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey history
  31. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey history
  32. FHFA: U.S. Federal Housing Announces 2026 Multifamily Loan Purchase Caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
  33. The Crittenden Report: Bridge lenders are flocking to multifamily
  34. RRA Capital: The bridge lending market floodgates will open in 2026
  35. Northmarq: Commercial mortgage rates and spreads, as of Aug 25, 2026
  36. UCF Institute for Economic Forecasting: Florida and Metro Forecast, Winter 2026
  37. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas: Texas employment forecast strengthens (Jul 17, 2026)
  38. Dallas Fed: Dallas Fed: Texas employment forecast softens
  39. MMG Real Estate Advisors: Atlanta Q2 2026 Market Report
  40. New York Fed: Effective Federal Funds Rate data, with target range
  41. FRED: DGS10, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity
  42. FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis): DGS10, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity
  43. Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, Sep 16, 2026
  44. ECB: Official interest rates
  45. Bank of Japan: Mpmdeci
  46. Trading Economics: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), 99.16 on Sep 4, 2026
  47. U.S. Energy Information Administration: Brent and WTI spot prices (Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1, 2026)
Disclosures. Compiled Oct 2, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Not investment advice.
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