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Monthly multifamily market intelligence

The Pierson Report

Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
October 2026
Los Angeles MSA. Multifamily
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The Month in Three Parts

How We Got Here

  • Los Angeles stayed a top liquidity market: $9.3 billion traded over the trailing 12 months, up 35.2%, with Q2 volume at $2.56 billion, up 39.3% year over year [1].
  • The rate backdrop turned against sellers: the 10-year Treasury rose from 4.78% on Sep 4 to 5.24% on Oct 1, while SOFR reached 3.87% on Oct 1 [2][3].
  • Agency debt repriced before fundamentals did: the 5-year fixed quote stood at 6.07% on Aug 31, above the Q2 average cap rate of 5.37% [4][1].
  • Supply kept thinning: Los Angeles had 16,421 units under construction in Q2, while national starts fell to 475,000 units, 3.5% of inventory [5][6].
  • Policy stayed local: Measure ULA transfer taxes, rent rules and wildfire insurance costs shaped underwriting more than new deliveries did [7][8].

Where We Are Now

  • Conventional apartments ended September at 92.9% occupancy, up 0.3 point year over year, with effective rent up 1.3% to $2,836 [9].
  • Demand beat supply in Q2: 2,837 units absorbed against 1,695 delivered, with 9,105 deliveries over the trailing 12 months [1].
  • The average cap rate rose a sixth straight quarter to 5.37%, at $308,551 per unit, still below the 2022 peak by 13.9% [1].
  • Debt is the hurdle: agency 5-year money was 6.07% on Aug 31, SOFR was 3.87% on Oct 1 and the 30-year mortgage hit 7.28% in the week of Oct 1 [4][3][10].
  • Operating costs are split: Prop 13 keeps taxes predictable, while FAIR Plan rates are up about 29% with coverage limits raised to $3 million [11][8].
  • Deals kept clearing: five conventional sales or financings were reported from Jul 14 to Aug 14, led by Shores at $170 million in Marina del Rey [12][13].

Where We're Headed

  • The Fed raised the target range to 3.75 to 4.00% on Sep 16; after a weak September jobs report, futures price about an 86% chance of a hold on Oct 27 to 28 [14][15].
  • Inflation is still warm: July CPI ran 3.4% and August PCE ran 3.4% headline with 3.0% core, keeping cuts off the near-term table [16][17].
  • Forecasters still see tighter conditions: vacancy ending 2026 near 4.4% and rent up 1.7%, if absorption keeps outpacing deliveries [1].
  • California added 138,500 jobs from August 2025 to August 2026, up 0.77%; Los Angeles County added 35,300 over the year to June [18][19].
  • Global yields point to a higher floor: the UK gilt was 4.92% on Sep 30, Germany 3.60% on Oct 1 and Japan 3.09% on Oct 1 [20][21][22].

What It Means for Los Angeles

  1. Financing costs are higher. Los Angeles owners should underwrite refinances off the 10-year Treasury at 5.24% on Oct 1 per the U.S. Treasury, SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1 and agency 5-year debt at 6.07% on Aug 31 [2][3][4].
  2. Pricing gap is narrowing. Los Angeles cap rates reached 5.37% in Q2, a sixth straight rise, at $308,551 per unit; the gap to 6.07% agency debt is about 70 basis points [1][4].
  3. Fundamentals remain tight. Los Angeles conventional occupancy was 92.9% in September and effective rent rose 1.3% to $2,836; Q2 absorption of 2,837 units topped 1,695 deliveries [9][1].
  4. Deal flow stays selective. Los Angeles still cleared major trades, led by Shores at $170 million, plus Buena Park, Miracle Mile, Pomona and a $33.2 million Freddie Mac loan [12][23][24][25][13].
  5. California economy cushions Los Angeles. California added 138,500 jobs from August 2025 to August 2026, and Los Angeles County added 35,300 over the year to June; FAIR Plan costs, not Prop 13 taxes, are the pressure [18][19][8][11].
  6. U.S. rates set Los Angeles floor. For Los Angeles, the Fed's 3.75 to 4.00% range, an expected Oct 27 to 28 hold, 3.4% August PCE and 475,000 national starts argue against quick relief [14][15][17][6].
  7. Global yields reach Los Angeles loans. Los Angeles borrowing costs track more than the Fed: UK gilts were 4.92% on Sep 30, Germany 3.60% on Oct 1, Japan 3.09% on Oct 1 and the ECB deposit rate 2.50% on Oct 2 [20][21][22][26].

Los Angeles Multifamily

Los Angeles conventional apartments held 92.9% occupancy in September, up 0.3 point year over year, with effective rent up 1.3% to $2,836 [9]. Cap rates rose a sixth straight quarter to 5.37% in Q2, while price per unit sits 13.9% below the 2022 peak at $308,551 [1]. Absorption of 2,837 units topped Q2 deliveries, and forecasters see vacancy tightening to 4.4% by year-end [1].

Average cap rate
5.37%
Sixth straight rise; $308,551 per unit
Matthews, Q2 2026 [1]
Rent growth
+1.3%
Effective rent, September 2026
ALN, Sep 30 [9]
Occupancy (conventional)
92.9%
September 2026; includes lease-ups
ALN, Sep 30 [9]
Population growth
-0.5%
2025 metro estimate; 12.84M residents
Census, Vintage 2025 [27]

Los Angeles Cap Rate Range by Asset Class

Estimated class bands set around the 5.37% average (Matthews, Q2 2026); no class-level cap rates were published.
Range chart of Los Angeles estimated cap rates by class4%5%6%7%Class A4.7 to 5.1%Class B5.2 to 5.8%Class C5.9 to 6.8%avg 5.37%debt 6.07%
Estimated cap rate rangeMarket averageAgency loan rate
Sources: Matthews, Q2 2026 [1] [4]

Los Angeles vs. National Fundamentals

Los Angeles rents rose through September while national medians slipped; local vacancy stays well below U.S. levels. [9] [28]
Rent growth, year over year0%-2%-4%+2%Los Angeles+1.3%U.S.-0.4 to +1.5%Vacancy0%5%10%15%Los Angeles7.1%U.S.7 to 8.9%
Los AngelesUnited States
Sources: Matthews, ALN, C&W, Apartment List; Q2 to Sep 2026 [1] [9] [5] [28]

Supply Pipeline, U.S. and Los Angeles

Demand is outpacing a record delivery wave, and the pipeline is thinning as financing stays tight. [1] [5]
MetricNationalLos AngelesRead-through
Deliveries88K in Q2, down 27% from a year ago [6]1,695 units in Q2; 9,105 trailing 12 months, up 17.6% [1]Deliveries rising from a low base
Under construction475,000 units, 3.5% of inventory [6]16,421 units under construction [5]Financing pushed developers to pull back on starts
Absorption vs. deliveries362K absorbed vs 358K delivered, four quarters [6]2,837 absorbed vs. 1,695 delivered, Q2 [1]Demand outpacing new supply
2026 outlookPeaked, now tightening [6]Vacancy 4.4% and rent +1.7% by year-end [1]Cap rates still drifting up
Supply pressure by submarketSouth Bay, Palms/Mar Vista and Long Beach lead construction share [1]Downtown carries most of the pipeline
Price trend$308,551 per unit; $9.3B trailing 12-month volume, +35.2% [1]Q2 volume $2.56B, up 39.3% YoY [1]

Los Angeles Submarket Snapshot

The largest cities in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Sep 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
SubmarketMedian rent
Apartment List, Sep 2026 [29]		Rent, year over year
Apartment List [30]		MF units permitted, 2025
Census BPS [31]		MF units permitted, 2026 through Aug
Census BPS [32]		2026 permit pace vs. 2025
annualized
Anaheim$2,328+1.4%7056+20%
Brea$2,674+4.5%0391n/a, no 2025 permits
Fullerton$2,439+3.0%400-100%
Laguna Niguel$3,214+7.6%00n/a, no 2025 permits
Lake Forest$3,319+3.0%00n/a, no 2025 permits
Los Angeles$2,081-1.1%6,59910,645+142%
Mission Viejo$3,037+4.2%00n/a, no 2025 permits
Pasadena$2,544+0.6%32514-94%
Pomona$1,887-4.6%2350-100%
Santa Clarita$2,442-2.4%00n/a, no 2025 permits
West Hollywood$2,226+1.5%11778+0%

Los Angeles Transactions and Deal Flow

Los Angeles deal flow stayed active but selective: Jackson Square Properties' $170 million purchase of Shores in Marina del Rey led five conventional trades and financings reported since early July, including Bascom Group's $53 million Buena Park value-add buy and Palm Court's $51.25 million sale and $33.2 million Freddie Mac loan [12][23][24][13]. Measure ULA's transfer tax keeps new supply constrained, supporting cap rates above 5 percent even as the market works through a short-term reset [7].

PropertySubmarketUnitsBuyer / SellerPrice / CapReported
Shores [12]Marina del Rey [12]544 [12]Jackson Square Properties; sold by Shores LLC [12]$170M [12]Aug 11 [12]
Castlewood Park Apartments [23]Buena Park [23]183 [23]The Bascom Group; seller Undisclosed (IPA). Value-add [23]$53M; $290,301 per unit [23]Jul 14 [23]
Palm Court Apartments [24]Miracle Mile [24]132 [24]Prime Residential; sold by a private investor (Marcus & Millichap) [24]$51.25M; $388,258 per unit [24]Jul 16 [24]
Terramonte at Foothill [25]Pomona [25]138 [25]Sack Capital Partners; sold by Positive Investments (IPA) [25]$36.7M; $265,942 per unit [25]Aug 4 [25]
Palm Court Apartments [13]Miracle Mile [13]132 [13]$33.2M Freddie Mac acquisition loan provided by Walker & Dunlop [13]Financing [13]Aug 14 [13]

Multifamily Capital Markets

Financing costs moved up into October: the 30-year home mortgage rate hit 7.28% in the week of Oct 1, up 57 basis points from 6.71% on Sep 3, and the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.24% on Oct 1 [10][33][2]. Agency lending remains the workhorse for apartment deals, with a combined $176 billion purchase cap for 2026 and half of volume required to be mission-driven [34]. SOFR stood at 3.87% on Oct 1, keeping floating-rate bridge money near 6 to 8% [3].

Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend

Indicative 5-year agency fixed rate at each dated quote. Hover the points.
6.4%6.0%5.6%5.2%4.8%Jan 20Mar 9Aug 315.42%5.29%6.07%
Sources: BWE, Aug 31 [4]

Lending Landscape

Programs, caps, and terms relevant to multifamily owners.
ItemCurrentSource
Agency 2026 purchase cap$88B each, $176B totalFHFA, Nov 24 [34]
Mission-driven minimum50%FHFA, Nov 24 [34]
Freddie Mac 5-year fixed, higher leverage (1.25x / 65%)5.92-6.07%BWE, Aug 31 [4]
Fannie Mae 5 / 7 / 10-year, 65% LTV, 1.35x5.56-5.96% / 5.62-6.02% / 5.68-6.08%BWE, Aug 31 [4]
Freddie Mac 5 / 7 / 10-year, 60% LTV, 1.30x5.87-6.02% / 5.92-6.07% / 5.88-6.03%BWE, Aug 31 [4]
Max LTV / min DSCRAgency tiers run to 80% LTV at 1.25x; best pricing at 55 to 65% LTV and 1.35 to 1.55x. Loans actually closing averaged 63.3% LTV and 1.43x in Q2BWE, Aug 31; CBRE, Q2 2026 [4]
Bridge floating, bank / balance sheetSOFR + 225 to 325 bp (about 6.1 to 7.1% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)Crittenden; New York Fed, Oct 1 [35] [3]
Bridge floating, debt fundSOFR + 300 to 450 bp (about 6.9 to 8.4% with SOFR at 3.87% on Oct 1)RRA Capital; New York Fed, Oct 1 [36] [3]
Multifamily rate range (all products)5.43% to 6.63%Northmarq, Aug 25 [37]
30-year home mortgage (context)7.28%Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 1 [10]

California

Los Angeles County's 2026 assessment roll rose 4.42% to $2.27 trillion in net taxable value [11]. The county added 35,300 jobs over the year to June, up 0.8% [19]. Metro population fell 0.5% to 12.84 million as of July 1, 2025 [27]. For owners, property taxes stay predictable under Prop 13; insurance is the cost pressure, with FAIR Plan rates up about 29% [8].

California job growth, 2025
138,500 jobs (0.77 percent increase) from August 2025 to August 2026
edd.ca.gov, Aug 16 [18]
2026 forecast
0.8%
2027: 2.5%
UCLA Anderson Forecast [38]
LA County, year to June
+35,300
+0.8%; about 3,700 jobs a month in 2026
EDD / BLS via USAFacts, Sep 4 [19]
LA County roll, 2026
+4.42%
$2.27 trillion net taxable value
LA County Assessor, Jul 14 [11]

California and Los Angeles Job Growth

0%1%2%California 20250.1%LA County 20260.8%California 2026 fcst0.8%California 2027 fcst2.5%
Sources: UCLA Anderson Forecast / California EDD [38] [19]

State-Level Operating Factors

Costs and policy that hit Los Angeles net operating income directly.
FactorStatusRead-through
Property insuranceFAIR Plan coverage limit raised to $3M and eligibility extended to small rentals in 2026; rates up about 29% [8]Wildfire exposure is the pricing driver
Property tax2026 assessment roll +4.42% to $2.27 trillion; Prop 13 caps most parcels at a 2% annual trend [11]Predictable; Measure ULA transfer tax hits city sales over $5M
Population and migrationMetro 12.84 million on July 1, 2025, down 0.5% [27]Population still shrinking after pandemic losses
Key sectorPrivate Education and Health Services added 131,500 jobs from August 2025 to August 2026 [18]More than double the gain in Leisure and Hospitality (+45,700) from August 2025 to August 2026 [18]
Peer metros (Q2 2026)Seattle vacancy 6.7%, rents +1.6% QoQ . Phoenix vacancy 11.3% . Denver vacancy 5.74% [39]Los Angeles has the lowest vacancy of the Western markets

National Rates and the Fed

The Fed raised its target range a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.00% on Sep 16 in a unanimous vote, the first hike since July 2023 [14]. The 10-year Treasury reached 5.24% on Oct 1, up from 4.78% on Sep 4 [2], and the 30-year mortgage hit 7.28% in the week of Oct 1 [10]. August PCE inflation ran 3.4% headline and 3.0% core [17]. After a weak September jobs report, futures price about an 86% chance the Fed holds at its Oct 27 to 28 meeting [15].

10-Year Treasury
5.24%
Oct 1. Up from 4.78% on Sep 4
U.S. Treasury, Oct 1 [2]
Fed Funds Target
3.75 to 4.00%
Raised Sep 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote
Federal Reserve, Sep 16 [14] [40]
SOFR
3.87%
Oct 1. Up from 3.66% on Sep 3
New York Fed, Oct 1 [3]
Next Fed Meeting
Oct 27 to 28
Futures price about an 86% chance of a hold
CME FedWatch via CNBC, Oct 1 [15]
CPI / PCE
3.4% / 3.4%
Jul CPI 3.4% (core 2.5%). Aug PCE 3.4% (core 3.0%)
BLS, Aug 12; BEA, Sep 30 [16] [17]

The Rate Stack: How a Los Angeles Loan Gets Priced

Stacked from the Fed's policy rate up to what a borrower actually pays. Hover each layer.
Fed Funds midpoint 3.875%+1.37%+0.83% spread10-year Treasury 5.24%Agency 5-year 6.07%0%
Policy rate (Treasury)Term premium (Treasury)Lender spreadAll-in loan rate
Sources: Federal Reserve, Sep 16; U.S. Treasury, Oct 1 [40] [2] [4] [14]

10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today

The mortgage rate sets the cost of buying a house; the gap over the Treasury is what the market has added since 2022.
10-Year Treasury
5.24%
Daily close, Oct 1
U.S. Treasury, Oct 1 [2]
30-Year Mortgage
7.28%
Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Oct 1
Freddie Mac, Oct 1 [10]
Spread, latest month
2.04 pts
1980 to date average 1.84 pts
Freddie Mac, Oct 1; FRED, Sep 4 [10] [2] [42]
0%4%8%12%16%024198019841988199219962000200420082012201620202024Spread, percentage points
30-year fixed mortgage (Freddie Mac)10-year TreasurySpread
Sources: U.S. Treasury and Freddie Mac, monthly averages through Oct 1, 2026; FRED for the 10-year before 2026 [2] [10] [41]

Global Backdrop

Global bond yields moved higher again as central banks kept tightening. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 5.24% on Oct 1 [2], with the UK gilt at 4.92% on Sep 30 [20], Germany at 3.60% [21] and Japan at 3.09% on Oct 1 [22]. The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on Sep 16 [43], and the ECB deposit rate reached 2.50% on Oct 2 [26]. Higher global yields feed directly into U.S. borrowing costs.

10-Year Government Bond Yields

Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
0%2%4%6%United States5.24%United Kingdom4.92%Germany3.60%Japan3.09%
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Oct 1; Bank of England, Sep 30; Deutsche Bundesbank, Oct 1; Japan Ministry of Finance, Oct 1 [2] [20] [21] [22]

Global Policy and Risk Snapshot

Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into borrowing costs.
FactorStatusWhy Los Angeles cares
European Central BankDeposit facility 2.50% on Oct 2, raised from 2.25% effective Sep 16 [26] [44]The second ECB increase of this cycle; keeps global yields anchored higher
Bank of EnglandBank Rate 3.75% on Oct 1 [20]Gilt yields at 4.92% on Sep 30, an inflation worry [20]
Bank of JapanPolicy rate 1.00%, held Jul 31 [45]. JGB 10-year 3.09% on Oct 1 [22]Less Japanese demand for Treasuries, so higher U.S. yields
Oil and energyElevated Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1; Hormuz flows 4.9 million barrels a day in Q2 [47]Plus for Texas jobs and royalties; minus for inflation and Fed posture
U.S. dollarIndex 99.16 on Sep 4, down 0.5% over the month and up 1.4% year to date [46]A weaker dollar makes U.S. property cheaper for foreign buyers

Sources

Show the 47 sources cited in this edition
  1. Matthews: Los Angeles, CA Multifamily Market Report Q2 2026
  2. U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 10-year
  3. New York Fed: Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) data
  4. BWE: Market Rates, as of Aug 31, 2026
  5. Cushman & Wakefield: U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat, Q2 2026
  6. Cushman & Wakefield: U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat
  7. REBusiness: Marcus & Millichap Brokers $47M Sale of Multifamily Property in Los Angeles
  8. California FAIR Plan guides: What changed in 2026
  9. ALN Apartment Data: Monthly Market Review, conventional properties, Los Angeles, September 2026
  10. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey history
  11. lacounty.gov: LA County Property Values Surpass $2.2 Trillion
  12. REBusiness: Jackson Square Properties Acquires Multifamily Community in Marina del Rey, California for $170M
  13. REBusiness: Walker & Dunlop Provides $33.2M Agency Acquisition Loan for Los Angeles Multifamily Community
  14. Federal Reserve: Monetarypolicy
  15. CNBC: Stock market today live updates
  16. BLS: Consumer Price Index, July 2026
  17. BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026
  18. edd.ca.gov: California Adds 39,400 Jobs in August
  19. California EDD: Los Angeles County labor market, July 17, 2026 release
  20. Bank of England: Database series IUDBEDR, Bank Rate
  21. Bundesbank: Daily yield of the current 10-year Federal bond
  22. Japan Ministry of Finance: Japanese Government Bonds interest rate, 10-year
  23. REBusiness: Bascom Group Acquires Value-Add Apartment Community in Buena Park, California for $53M
  24. Marcus & Millichap: Marcus millichap brokers 51 million sale of 132 unit los angeles multifamily asset
  25. REBusiness: IPA Brokers $36.7M Sale of Apartment Complex in California’s Inland Empire
  26. ECB: Key ECB interest rates, deposit facility
  27. Census: Metropolitan statistical area population estimates, Vintage 2025
  28. Apartment List: National rent data
  29. Apartment List: Apartment List rent estimates, Sep 2026
  30. Apartment List: Apartment List rent growth year over year, Sep 2026
  31. Census: Survey,State,6-Digit,County,Census Place,FIPS Place,FIPS MCD,Pop,CSA,CBSA,Footnote,Central,Zip,Region,Division,Number of,Place,,1-unit,,,2-units,,,3-4 units,,,5+ units,,,1-unit rep,,,2-units rep,,,3-4 units rep,,,5+ units rep Date,Code,ID,C
  32. Census: Survey,State,6-Digit,County,Census Place,FIPS Place,FIPS MCD,Pop,CSA,CBSA,Footnote,Central,Zip,Region,Division,Number of,Place,,1-unit,,,2-units,,,3-4 units,,,5+ units,,,1-unit rep,,,2-units rep,,,3-4 units rep,,,5+ units rep Date,Code,ID,C
  33. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey history
  34. FHFA: U.S. Federal Housing Announces 2026 Multifamily Loan Purchase Caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
  35. The Crittenden Report: Bridge lenders are flocking to multifamily
  36. RRA Capital: The bridge lending market floodgates will open in 2026
  37. Northmarq: Commercial mortgage rates and spreads, as of Aug 25, 2026
  38. UCLA Anderson Forecast: U.S., California economies slow amid uncertainties
  39. Kidder Mathews: Seattle Multifamily Market Report Q2 2026
  40. New York Fed: Effective Federal Funds Rate data, with target range
  41. FRED: DGS10, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity
  42. FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis): DGS10, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity
  43. Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, Sep 16, 2026
  44. ECB: Official interest rates
  45. Bank of Japan: Mpmdeci
  46. Trading Economics: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), 99.16 on Sep 4, 2026
  47. U.S. Energy Information Administration: Brent and WTI spot prices (Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1, 2026)
Disclosures. Compiled Oct 2, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Not investment advice.
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