Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
September 2026
Seattle MSA. Multifamily
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The Month in Three Parts
How We Got Here
Seattle led the nation in 2025 apartment transactions: $4.4 billion across 84 properties and 16,045 units, first on the Yardi Matrix ranking [121].
Nationally, construction fell to 475,000 units, 3.5% of inventory and the lowest since 2013 [27][28].
Agency 5-year quotes ran 5.14 to 5.29% in March [40] before the 10-year Treasury climbed from 4.19% on Jan 2 to 4.78% on Sep 4 [1].
The Fed committee held rates at 3.50 to 3.75% on Jul 29, but three members voted to raise them [17][18].
Deliveries peaked in 2025 (8,139 units in the first half alone) and Seattle-area job growth turned negative, averaging a loss of 467 jobs a month [122][125].
Where We Are Now
Supply is falling fast: 3,813 units delivered year to date, down 53% from 8,139 a year earlier, while Q2 absorption of 4,034 units nearly doubled Q1 [122].
Vacancy is 6.7%, down from 7.0% in Q1 and a year ago; average rent $2,250, up 1.6% in the quarter [122].
Average cap rate 5.7%, up 10 basis points in a year, at $239,000 per unit [122][123].
Inflation is still above target: CPI 3.4% in July, PCE 3.7% in July [36][216]. SOFR is 3.66% [35].
Pricing gap: 5.7% vs. agency 5-year debt at 6.07% [40], negative leverage of about 37 basis points.
Jobs are the weak link: the Seattle area has lost an average of 550 jobs a month in 2026 and the city forecast sees little growth through 2027 [125][126].
Where We're Headed
Rates: futures markets price about a 58% chance of a quarter-point increase on Sep 16, after peaking near 66% following the Jackson Hole speech [217]. If it lands, agency 5-year fixed rates extrapolate to roughly 6.2 to 6.3% [1][40].
Supply: 19,368 units still under construction, up 5% from a year ago, with the largest towers in Denny Triangle (Seattle House, 1,130 units; WB1200, 1,050) and Overlake (1,088) [123]. Deliveries fall this year, then a second wave lands.
Washington employment is forecast flat: 0.0% to 0.1% in 2026 and 0.3% in 2027 [124]. Population, not payrolls, is carrying demand: the metro added 66,666 residents, 1.6%, in the latest Census year [127].
Transactions stay active: three sales closed in the last 30 days between $304,000 and $407,000 per unit, and Museum House drew a $250 million refinancing [231]. Earlier in the year Pacific Urban paid $112 million for A'Capella in Lynnwood and Sea 2 Sky $34 million for Station Nine [128][129].
Net: Seattle's 2026 story is a supply lull inside a jobs stall. Vacancy improves this year; the 2027 pipeline and AI-driven office demand decide whether rents follow.
What It Means for Seattle
The rate direction has flipped. Three Fed votes to raise rates and a 10-year Treasury at 4.78% mean the "wait for cuts" plan is over for 2026. Owners with loans maturing in 2026 or 2027 should model a refinance at 6.0 to 6.5% [1][17][18].
The 2025 transaction leader. $4.4 billion across 84 sales put Seattle first nationally on the Yardi Matrix list [121]; volume continues in 2026 at $239K per unit [122].
A supply lull, not a supply end. Deliveries are down 53% this year, but 19,368 units remain under construction, slightly more than a year ago [122][123].
Jobs are negative. The Seattle area is losing about 550 jobs a month in 2026 and the state forecast is flat through 2027 [124][125]. Underwrite rent growth conservatively.
Costs are steady. King County apartment assessed values have been flat to down since 2022; the 2026 roll rose 5.4% overall [130]. Washington has no state income tax; the Seattle payroll tax is the local watch item [126].
Seattle Multifamily
Seattle led the nation in 2025 apartment transactions and enters late 2026 in a supply lull: deliveries are down 53% year to date while Q2 absorption nearly doubled. Vacancy is 6.7% and rents rose 1.6% in the quarter. The counterweight is employment, which is shrinking in the Seattle area and forecast flat statewide.
Denny Triangle, Overlake, Port Gardner (Everett) carry the largest projects [123]
Lynnwood and Snohomish suburbs active for trades [128][129]
Price trend
$239,000 per unit, flat QoQ; $312 per square foot [122]
Pricing held while cap rates edged up
Seattle Submarket Snapshot
The largest cities in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Aug 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
MF units permitted, 2026 through Jul Census BPS [208]
2026 permit pace vs. 2025 annualized
Auburn
$1,579
-1.8%
0
0
n/a, no 2025 permits
Bellevue
$2,467
+1.4%
293
1,229
+619%
Bothell
$2,378
-0.1%
143
0
-100%
Federal Way
$1,776
-1.1%
0
0
n/a, no 2025 permits
Lakewood
$1,515
+0.5%
388
20
-91%
Lynnwood
$1,748
-0.9%
60
0
-100%
Puyallup
$1,841
+0.0%
308
0
-100%
Redmond
$2,301
+1.5%
1,119
598
-8%
Renton
$2,065
-0.1%
0
0
n/a, no 2025 permits
Seattle
$2,092
-2.9%
3,033
1,192
-33%
Shoreline
$1,927
-3.2%
11
570
+88x
Tacoma
$1,677
-1.6%
557
638
+96%
Seattle Transactions and Deal Flow
Seattle stayed the most liquid market on the list. Four transactions were reported in the last 30 days, three of them sales at $304,000 to $407,000 per unit, plus a $250 million refinancing of a 2025-delivered downtown tower [231].
Property
Submarket
Units
Buyer / Seller
Price / Cap
Reported
Aperture on Fifth
Denny Triangle
106
Freestone Capital; sold by PrivatePortfolio Group (IPA)
Agency lending (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) remains the workhorse: a combined $176 billion cap for 2026, half of which must go to affordable housing. As of Aug 31 low-leverage agency loans price in the mid-5s and higher-leverage quotes sit just above 6% [40]. Across all multifamily products, quotes run 5.43% to 6.63% [220]. CBRE put the average multifamily loan spread at 162 basis points in Q2, 15 tighter than a year ago, with lenders competing on price rather than leverage [219]. Bank bridge money runs SOFR plus 225 to 325 basis points, debt funds SOFR plus 300 to 450.
Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend
Freddie Mac indicative 5-year fixed at 1.25x debt coverage and 65% loan-to-value, top of the published range. One source throughout. Hover the points.
Source: BWE Market Rates [40], one rate sheet at three dates (Jan 20, Mar 9 and Aug 31, 2026). Indicative levels only; Freddie Mac prices each loan individually and does not publish pricing.
Lending Landscape
Programs, caps, and terms relevant to Seattle owners.
Washington's labor market has stalled. The state Employment Security Department expects employment growth of about 0.0% to 0.1% in 2026 and 0.3% in 2027, and the Seattle area has been losing about 550 jobs a month this year. Population growth of 1.6% and in-migration are doing the work that payrolls used to.
Seattle sits mid-pack on vacancy with positive quarterly rent growth
National Rates and the Fed
The Fed held at 3.50 to 3.75% in July with an unusual three-member vote in favor of raising. Futures now put a quarter-point increase at the Sep 15 to 16 meeting at about 58%, after the Jackson Hole speech pushed the odds as high as 66%. The 10-year Treasury closed Sep 4 at 4.78%, its highest of the year, and August payrolls came in at 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%.
Sources: Federal Reserve [17]; U.S. Treasury, Sep 4 [1]; BWE rate sheet, Aug 31 [40]. Decomposition is illustrative; spreads vary by leverage, term, and borrower, and a 5-year agency loan is priced off the 5-year index, not the 10-year.
10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today
Why apartments rent: the mortgage rate sets the cost of buying a house, and the gap between it and the Treasury is the part of that cost the market has added since 2022. Monthly averages, percent. Lower panel: mortgage rate minus Treasury, in percentage points. Hover for any month.
Sources: FRED series DGS10 [191] and MORTGAGE30US [192], monthly averages of daily and weekly data, refreshed each build (2026-09-04).
Global Backdrop
Global bond yields moved higher again as central banks turned from cutting to tightening. The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.25% in June, the Bank of Japan reached 1.00% for the first time since 1995, and the Japanese 10-year crossed 3% on Sep 2. Energy prices are elevated on Strait of Hormuz supply disruption, which adds to inflation.
10-Year Government Bond Yields
Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Sep 4 [1]; Bank of England, Sep 2 [209]; Deutsche Bundesbank, Sep 4 [210]; Japan Ministry of Finance, Sep 3 [211]. All four are the issuing authority's own published series.
Global Policy and Risk Snapshot
Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into Seattle borrowing costs.
Factor
Status
Why Seattle cares
European Central Bank
Deposit facility 2.25%, raised from 2.00% effective Jun 17, 2026 [212]
The first ECB increase of this cycle; keeps global yields anchored higher
Bank of England
Bank Rate 3.75%, held Jul 30; next decision Sep 17 [209]
Gilt yields still rising to 4.70%, an inflation worry [209]
Bank of Japan
Policy rate 1.00%, raised Jun 16 and held Jul 31 [213]. JGB 10-year 2.97%, above 3% on Sep 2 [211]
Less Japanese demand for Treasuries, so higher U.S. yields
Oil and energy
Elevated Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1; Hormuz flows 4.9 million barrels a day in Q2 [214]
Minus for inflation and Fed posture; no local energy offset
U.S. dollar
Index 99.16 on Sep 4, down 0.5% over the month and up 1.4% year to date [38]
A weaker dollar makes U.S. property cheaper for foreign buyers
Sources: European Central Bank [212]; Bank of England [209]; Bank of Japan [213]; Japan Ministry of Finance [211]; EIA [214]; Trading Economics [38].
BWE: Market Rates, as of Aug 31, 2026 (Fannie Mae DUS and Freddie Mac conventional fixed-rate ranges by term, DSCR and LTV tier); earlier BWE sheets as of Jan 20, 2026 and Mar 9, 2026 via the Internet Archive
Disclosures. Compiled Sep 4, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Items marked "Data unavailable" were not published or not captured in the period. Not investment advice.
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