Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
September 2026
San Antonio MSA. Multifamily
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The Month in Three Parts
How We Got Here
San Antonio's supply wave peaked in late 2024 with more than 13,000 units delivered in 12 months, about 6% of inventory [71]. Vacancy across all inventory is now the highest of any major U.S. market at about 16% [72].
Rents fell as the wave landed: -3.3% year over year at the trough, easing to about -1.8% by mid-2026 [71][73].
Nationally, construction fell to 475,000 units, 3.5% of inventory and the lowest since 2013 [27][28].
Agency 5-year quotes ran 5.14 to 5.29% in March [40] before the 10-year Treasury climbed from 4.19% on Jan 2 to 4.78% on Sep 4 [1].
The Fed committee held rates at 3.50 to 3.75% on Jul 29, but three members voted to raise them [17][18].
Texas job growth ran 1.6% annualized in the first seven months of 2026 after a flat 2025 (0.1%), below the state's 2% long-run average [221][48].
Where We Are Now
The pipeline has all but emptied: 2,638 units under construction after 12 straight quarters of contraction, with 1,731 delivered year to date [47].
Stabilized occupancy rose to 93.1% with gains in nearly every class [47]; the 16% all-inventory vacancy figure reflects new buildings still leasing up [72].
Rents are still contracting, about -1.8% year over year, as owners use concessions to fill new product [73].
Inflation is still above target: CPI 3.4% in July, PCE 3.7% in July [36][216]. SOFR is 3.66% [35].
Pricing gap: San Antonio average cap rate 5.6% [74] vs. agency 5-year debt at 6.07% [40]. That is negative leverage of about 47 basis points.
Population growth is slowing: +38,000 in the year to July 2025 versus +47,000 the year before, as immigration fell [75].
Where We're Headed
Rates: futures markets price about a 58% chance of a quarter-point increase on Sep 16, after peaking near 66% following the Jackson Hole speech [217]. If it lands, agency 5-year fixed rates extrapolate to roughly 6.2 to 6.3% [1][40].
Supply: with 2,638 units underway against a metro of roughly 220,000 units, 2027 deliveries will be a fraction of the 2024 peak [47][71]. Lease-up of the remaining new product is the main drag on the headline vacancy number.
Rents: occupancy is recovering ahead of rent, the same pattern as Houston and DFW. Expect the year-over-year rent figure to approach zero by early 2027 if absorption holds [47][73].
The Dallas Fed cut its 2026 Texas employment forecast to 1.7% (range 1.3 to 2.1%) on Aug 21 [221], and San Antonio trailed every large Texas metro at 1.3% year-to-date job growth [222]. Bexar County is forecasting its weakest property-tax revenue year since 2008 as home values dipped [76].
Net: San Antonio is the latest-cycle of the four metros. The supply problem is solving itself, but with slower population growth the recovery will be gradual rather than sharp [47][72][75].
What It Means for San Antonio
The rate direction has flipped. Three Fed votes to raise rates and a 10-year Treasury at 4.78% mean the "wait for cuts" plan is over for 2026. Owners with loans maturing in 2026 or 2027 should model a refinance at 6.0 to 6.5% [1][17][18].
Two vacancy numbers, both true. 16% across all inventory (including lease-ups) vs. 93.1% stabilized occupancy. The gap is the 2024 delivery wave still filling [72][47].
The pipeline is nearly gone. 2,638 units underway after 12 quarters of decline is the thinnest of any major Texas metro relative to inventory [47]. New competition after 2027 will be minimal.
Demand is the question, not supply. Population growth slowed to +38,000 as immigration fell [75]. Recovery depends on continued in-migration and the military, medical and manufacturing job base.
Costs are flat. Bexar County apartment appraisals rose only 3.8% in 2026 while homes fell 0.1% [77], the mildest tax picture in Texas. Average cap rate 5.6% vs. 6.07% agency debt is still negative leverage [74][40].
San Antonio Multifamily
San Antonio is the latest-cycle of the four Texas metros. The 2024 supply wave left all-inventory vacancy near 16%, the highest of any major U.S. market, but stabilized occupancy has climbed to 93.1% and the construction pipeline has contracted for 12 straight quarters to 2,638 units. Rents are still down about 1.8% year over year.
Average cap rate
5.6%
All classes combined; compressing on sales velocity
Sources: Apartment Loan Store [74]; Northmarq [78]. Class splits are interpolated around the published 5.6% average; no class-level San Antonio quotes were published this period.
San Antonio vs. National Fundamentals
Hover a bar. Negative means rents are falling.
San AntonioUnited States
Sources: Colliers [47]; Apartments.com [72]; MetroSignal [73]; Apartment List [25]; CBRE [26]; Cushman and Wakefield [27].
Improving but still negative; occupancy leading rent
San Antonio Submarket Snapshot
The largest cities in the San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Aug 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
MF units permitted, 2026 through Jul Census BPS [208]
2026 permit pace vs. 2025 annualized
New Braunfels
$1,214
-8.2%
0
303
n/a, no 2025 permits
San Antonio
$1,123
-4.9%
1,401
415
-49%
Seguin
$906
-1.4%
0
0
n/a, no 2025 permits
Universal City
$1,074
-5.0%
0
0
n/a, no 2025 permits
San Antonio Transactions and Deal Flow
Deal flow returned to the metro area in the last 30 days after a quiet spring. Northmarq reports cap rates compressing as sales velocity improves [78], and two transactions were reported inside the period: a 288-unit acquisition in Schertz and a refinancing in Westover Hills. The 2025 Vance Jackson trade is kept for comparison because it is the last reported sale in the submarket that absorbed the delivery wave.
Agency lending (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) remains the workhorse: a combined $176 billion cap for 2026, half of which must go to affordable housing. As of Aug 31 low-leverage agency loans price in the mid-5s and higher-leverage quotes sit just above 6% [40]. Across all multifamily products, quotes run 5.43% to 6.63% [220]. CBRE put the average multifamily loan spread at 162 basis points in Q2, 15 tighter than a year ago, with lenders competing on price rather than leverage [219]. Bank bridge money runs SOFR plus 225 to 325 basis points, debt funds SOFR plus 300 to 450.
Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend
Freddie Mac indicative 5-year fixed at 1.25x debt coverage and 65% loan-to-value, top of the published range. One source throughout. Hover the points.
Source: BWE Market Rates [40], one rate sheet at three dates (Jan 20, Mar 9 and Aug 31, 2026). Indicative levels only; Freddie Mac prices each loan individually and does not publish pricing.
Lending Landscape
Programs, caps, and terms relevant to San Antonio owners.
Texas gave back some of its second-quarter momentum. Employment grew 1.9% annualized in the first half, but payrolls fell at a 0.1% annualized rate in July, pulling year-to-date growth down to 1.6%, below the state's 2% long-run average. The Dallas Fed cut its full-year forecast to 1.7% on Aug 21, from 2.0% in July. Manufacturing wage pressure is easing: the Dallas Fed wages and benefits index fell to 21.1 in August from 30.8 in July.
Costs and policy that hit San Antonio net operating income directly.
Factor
Status
Read-through
Property insurance
Texas FAIR Plan rate changes took effect Sep 1 [10]
The first renewals at the new rates land this quarter. Multifamily policy quotes $3.2K to $9K per year [11]
Property tax
2026 apartment appraisals: Bexar County +3.8%; average home -0.1%; county forecasts weakest tax-revenue year since 2008 [77][76]
Mildest appraisal pressure in Texas; watch local rate increases to fill budget gaps
Population and migration
Metro 2.56M in 2026, up 1.2%; +38K in the year to Jul 2025 vs. +47K the prior year as immigration slowed [75]
Slowest growth of the four Texas metros
Energy sector
Brent $96.02 and WTI $91.48 on Sep 1; Strait of Hormuz flows 4.9 million barrels a day in Q2 against 21.6 million before the conflict [214]
Supports Houston and Permian jobs; indirect San Antonio benefit
Peer metros (Q2 2026)
DFW rents -1.6 to -2.1% YoY, vacancy 7 to 12.2% [22][20]. Austin rents +1.3% in Q2, first gain since 2022 [45]. Houston vacancy 7.1%, down 40 bp; rents -2.3% [46]
All four Texas metros are turning at the same time
National Rates and the Fed
The Fed held at 3.50 to 3.75% in July with an unusual three-member vote in favor of raising. Futures now put a quarter-point increase at the Sep 15 to 16 meeting at about 58%, after the Jackson Hole speech pushed the odds as high as 66%. The 10-year Treasury closed Sep 4 at 4.78%, its highest of the year, and August payrolls came in at 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%.
Sources: Federal Reserve [17]; U.S. Treasury, Sep 4 [1]; BWE rate sheet, Aug 31 [40]. Decomposition is illustrative; spreads vary by leverage, term, and borrower, and a 5-year agency loan is priced off the 5-year index, not the 10-year.
10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today
Why apartments rent: the mortgage rate sets the cost of buying a house, and the gap between it and the Treasury is the part of that cost the market has added since 2022. Monthly averages, percent. Lower panel: mortgage rate minus Treasury, in percentage points. Hover for any month.
Sources: FRED series DGS10 [191] and MORTGAGE30US [192], monthly averages of daily and weekly data, refreshed each build (2026-09-04).
Global Backdrop
Global bond yields moved higher again as central banks turned from cutting to tightening. The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.25% in June, the Bank of Japan reached 1.00% for the first time since 1995, and the Japanese 10-year crossed 3% on Sep 2. Energy prices are elevated on Strait of Hormuz supply disruption, which helps Texas producers but adds to inflation.
10-Year Government Bond Yields
Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Sep 4 [1]; Bank of England, Sep 2 [209]; Deutsche Bundesbank, Sep 4 [210]; Japan Ministry of Finance, Sep 3 [211]. All four are the issuing authority's own published series.
Global Policy and Risk Snapshot
Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into San Antonio borrowing costs.
Factor
Status
Why San Antonio cares
European Central Bank
Deposit facility 2.25%, raised from 2.00% effective Jun 17, 2026 [212]
The first ECB increase of this cycle; keeps global yields anchored higher
Bank of England
Bank Rate 3.75%, held Jul 30; next decision Sep 17 [209]
Gilt yields still rising to 4.70%, an inflation worry [209]
Bank of Japan
Policy rate 1.00%, raised Jun 16 and held Jul 31 [213]. JGB 10-year 2.97%, above 3% on Sep 2 [211]
Less Japanese demand for Treasuries, so higher U.S. yields
Oil and energy
Elevated Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1; Hormuz flows 4.9 million barrels a day in Q2 [214]
Plus for Texas jobs and royalties; minus for inflation and Fed posture
U.S. dollar
Index 99.16 on Sep 4, down 0.5% over the month and up 1.4% year to date [38]
A weaker dollar makes U.S. property cheaper for foreign buyers
Sources: European Central Bank [212]; Bank of England [209]; Bank of Japan [213]; Japan Ministry of Finance [211]; EIA [214]; Trading Economics [38].
BWE: Market Rates, as of Aug 31, 2026 (Fannie Mae DUS and Freddie Mac conventional fixed-rate ranges by term, DSCR and LTV tier); earlier BWE sheets as of Jan 20, 2026 and Mar 9, 2026 via the Internet Archive
Disclosures. Compiled Sep 4, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Items marked "Data unavailable" were not published or not captured in the period. Not investment advice.
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