Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
September 2026
Dallas-Fort Worth MSA. Multifamily
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The Month in Three Parts
How We Got Here
DFW absorbed a record 2024 to 2025 delivery wave; vacancy across all inventory reached 12.2% as lease-ups piled up [20].
Nationally, construction fell to 475,000 units, 3.5% of inventory and the lowest since 2013, as rates rose and rents stalled [27][28].
Agency 5-year quotes ran 5.14 to 5.29% in March [40] before the 10-year Treasury climbed from 4.19% on Jan 2 to 4.78% on Sep 4 [1].
The Fed committee held rates at 3.50 to 3.75% on Jul 29, but three members voted to raise them, the first three-way split in one direction since 2016 [17][18].
Texas job growth ran 1.6% annualized in the first seven months of 2026 after a flat 2025 (0.1%), below the state's 2% long-run average [221][48].
Where We Are Now
Demand now exceeds supply: U.S. absorption of 362K units over the past four quarters vs. 358K delivered, the first crossover since early 2022 [27]. CBRE counted 167,500 units absorbed in Q2 alone against 77,700 delivered [218]. In DFW, demand is outpacing new supply [12].
Rents still negative: DFW rent growth of minus 1.6% to minus 2.1% year over year, with concessions[22][23]. U.S. minus 0.8%, but rising seven straight months [237].
Inflation is still above target: CPI 3.4% in July, PCE 3.7% in July against the Fed's 2% goal [36][216]. Short-term rates are steady, with SOFR at 3.66% [35].
Pricing gap: DFW average cap rate 5.8% [21] vs. agency 5-year debt at 6.07% [40]. That is negative leverage of about 27 basis points, the narrowest gap of this cycle.
Population is the offset: DFW is number one in the U.S., adding 100K residents and 47K households in a year [12].
Global bond yields are rising in parallel: the German 10-year is 3.40%, the UK 10-year 4.70% and the Japanese 10-year crossed 3% on Sep 2 [209][210][211]. Nothing abroad is pulling U.S. rates lower.
Where We're Headed
Rates: futures markets price about a 58% chance of a quarter-point increase on Sep 16, after peaking near 66% following the Jackson Hole speech [217]. If it lands, agency 5-year fixed rates extrapolate to roughly 6.2 to 6.3% at current spreads[1][40].
Supply: 2026 U.S. deliveries projected at 382K units, down 27% from last year [28]. The pipeline thins further into 2027.
DFW vacancy is forecast to fall 40 basis points to 6.6% this year with effective rents up 1.8% [12]. National vacancy is expected to peak in 2026 then tighten, with rent recovery lagging [29].
The Dallas Fed cut its 2026 Texas employment forecast to 1.7% (range 1.3 to 2.1%) on Aug 21, from 2.0% in July [221]. Texas FAIR Plan insurance rate changes took effect Sep 1 [10].
Net: fundamentals improve while financing worsens. Expect cap rates to hold or drift up 25 to 50 basis points if the September increase lands, keeping deal volume selective through Q4 [12][21][217].
What It Means for Dallas
The rate direction has flipped. Three Fed votes to raise rates and a 10-year Treasury at 4.78% mean the "wait for cuts" plan is over for 2026. Owners with loans maturing in 2026 or 2027 should model a refinance at 6.0 to 6.5%, not 5.5% [1][17][18].
Negative leverage is the DFW reality, but the gap has narrowed. Average cap rate 5.8% vs. agency debt at 6.07%, about 27 basis points underwater against 70 in August. Deals still need conviction on rent growth, low leverage, or a low purchase basis, which is why volume stays selective [21][40].
Fundamentals are bottoming, not recovered. Absorption now exceeds deliveries nationally and in DFW, and the pipeline is the thinnest since 2013. But DFW rents are still down 1.6 to 2.1% with concessions. Expect vacancy to peak this year and rent growth to turn positive in late 2026 or 2027 [12][22][27][28].
Texas is still the demand engine, but the state forecast came down. DFW remains the number one U.S. metro for population growth, while the Dallas Fed cut its 2026 Texas job forecast to 1.7% after payrolls fell in July [221]. The risk is on the cost side: 2026 apartment appraisals up 19.6% in Dallas County and 23.8% in Tarrant County [49], insurance renewals, and any Fed-driven jump in floating-rate debt [10][12][221].
Global factors point the same way. The German 10-year is 3.40%, the British 10-year 4.70% and the Japanese 10-year crossed 3% for the first time in decades; the European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.25% in June and the Bank of Japan is at 1.00% [209][210][211][212][213]. Brent at $96 on Strait of Hormuz disruption is a modest Texas offset and an inflation problem everywhere else [214].
DFW Multifamily
DFW is rebalancing. Demand now outpaces new supply after the 2024 to 2025 delivery wave, and North Texas leads the nation in absolute population growth. But rents remain negative year over year and concessions are widespread. Sources disagree on vacancy and on the size of the pipeline; ranges are shown rather than single figures. No allowed source published newer metro-wide DFW fundamentals this month, so the Q1 and July figures below keep their original dates; the submarket table is refreshed to August.
Sources: Matthews Q1 2026 [21]; Colliers Q1 [20]; BWE rate sheet, Aug 31 [40]. Class splits are interpolated around the published 5.8% average; no class-level DFW quotes were published this period.
Frisco/Prosper and Allen/McKinney most pressured [21]; Fort Worth added The Vickery, 321 units downtown, in August [224]
North Fort Worth and northern Collin County: 6 to 8 weeks free rent is standard; 60% of DFW communities offer concessions, most since 2020 [43]
Submarket rent trend, trailing 12 months
Uptown Dallas +4%; intown Fort Worth +3%; Denton -6 to -7% [43]
Urban core leading; outer suburbs still digesting supply
DFW Submarket Snapshot
The largest cities in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Aug 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
MF units permitted, 2026 through Jul Census BPS [208]
2026 permit pace vs. 2025 annualized
Arlington
$1,261
-2.9%
812
684
+44%
Carrollton
$1,496
-0.8%
1,150
0
-100%
Dallas
$1,329
-1.5%
4,883
2,276
-20%
Denton
$1,198
-7.5%
2,508
757
-48%
Fort Worth
$1,337
-1.8%
3,348
4,254
+118%
Frisco
$1,727
-4.3%
4,562
660
-75%
Garland
$1,273
-5.3%
48
358
+12x
Grand Prairie
$1,382
-1.5%
240
846
+504%
Irving
$1,421
-0.3%
30
0
-100%
McKinney
$1,503
-5.3%
1,391
677
-17%
Mesquite
$1,252
-2.5%
0
0
n/a, no 2025 permits
Plano
$1,629
-2.6%
175
611
+499%
DFW Transactions and Deal Flow
Deal flow picked up over the last 30 days: two brokered sales and three financings were reported across the metroplex, against last month's edition, when construction lending was the only activity reported. Buyers remain selective after the oversupply of 2024 and 2025, and value-add product from the 1980s is trading alongside newly built lease-ups. Q1 2026 DFW sales volume was $43.3 million at about $183K per unit [21].
Property
Submarket
Units
Buyer / Seller
Price / Cap
Reported
The Flynn at Live Oak
East Dallas
327
Conor Commercial Real Estate and Globe Corp; $78.7M refinancing from Blue Owl Capital, arranged by JLL
Agency lending (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) remains the workhorse: a combined $176 billion cap for 2026, half of which must go to affordable housing. As of Aug 31 low-leverage agency loans price in the mid-5s and higher-leverage quotes sit just above 6% [40]. Across all multifamily products, quotes run 5.43% to 6.63% [220]. CBRE put the average multifamily loan spread at 162 basis points in Q2, 15 tighter than a year ago, with lenders competing on price rather than leverage [219]. Bank bridge money runs SOFR plus 225 to 325 basis points, debt funds SOFR plus 300 to 450.
Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend
Freddie Mac indicative 5-year fixed at 1.25x debt coverage and 65% loan-to-value, top of the published range. One source throughout. Hover the points.
Source: BWE Market Rates [40], one rate sheet at three dates (Jan 20, Mar 9 and Aug 31, 2026). Indicative levels only; Freddie Mac prices each loan individually and does not publish pricing.
Texas gave back some of its second-quarter momentum. Employment grew 1.9% annualized in the first half, but payrolls fell at a 0.1% annualized rate in July, pulling year-to-date growth down to 1.6%, below the state's 2% long-run average. The Dallas Fed cut its full-year forecast to 1.7% on Aug 21, from 2.0% in July. Manufacturing wage pressure is easing: the Dallas Fed wages and benefits index fell to 21.1 in August from 30.8 in July.
Costs and policy that hit DFW net operating income directly.
Factor
Status
Read-through
Property insurance
Texas FAIR Plan rate changes took effect Sep 1 [10]
The first renewals at the new rates land this quarter. Multifamily policy quotes $3.2K to $9K per year [11]
Property tax
2026 apartment appraisals: Dallas County +19.6% to $81.8B; Tarrant County +23.8% to $45.3B (after +25% in 2025) [49]
Effective rates about 2.0% (Dallas) and 2.1% (Tarrant); higher values mean higher bills
Population and migration
DFW #1 in U.S. +100K residents, +47K households, year over year (Mar) [12]
Core demand driver for absorption
Energy sector
Brent $96.02 and WTI $91.48 on Sep 1; Strait of Hormuz flows 4.9 million barrels a day in Q2 against 21.6 million before the conflict [214]
Supports Houston and Permian jobs; indirect DFW benefit
Peer metros (Q2 2026)
Austin rents +1.3% in Q2, first gain since 2022 [45]. Houston vacancy 7.1%, down 40 bp; rents -2.3% YoY [46]. San Antonio occupancy 93.1% [47]
All three Texas metros are turning at the same time as DFW
National Rates and the Fed
The Fed held at 3.50 to 3.75% in July with an unusual three-member vote in favor of raising. Futures now put a quarter-point increase at the Sep 15 to 16 meeting at about 58%, after the Jackson Hole speech pushed the odds as high as 66%. The 10-year Treasury closed Sep 4 at 4.78%, its highest of the year, and August payrolls came in at 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%.
Sources: Federal Reserve [17]; U.S. Treasury, Sep 4 [1]; BWE rate sheet, Aug 31 [40]. Decomposition is illustrative; spreads vary by leverage, term, and borrower, and a 5-year agency loan is priced off the 5-year index, not the 10-year.
10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today
Why apartments rent: the mortgage rate sets the cost of buying a house, and the gap between it and the Treasury is the part of that cost the market has added since 2022. Monthly averages, percent. Lower panel: mortgage rate minus Treasury, in percentage points. Hover for any month.
Sources: FRED series DGS10 [191] and MORTGAGE30US [192], monthly averages of daily and weekly data, refreshed each build (2026-09-04).
Global Backdrop
Global bond yields moved higher again as central banks turned from cutting to tightening. The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.25% in June, the Bank of Japan reached 1.00% for the first time since 1995, and the Japanese 10-year crossed 3% on Sep 2. Energy prices are elevated on Strait of Hormuz supply disruption, which helps Texas producers but adds to inflation.
10-Year Government Bond Yields
Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Sep 4 [1]; Bank of England, Sep 2 [209]; Deutsche Bundesbank, Sep 4 [210]; Japan Ministry of Finance, Sep 3 [211]. All four are the issuing authority's own published series.
Global Policy and Risk Snapshot
Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into DFW borrowing costs.
Factor
Status
Why DFW cares
European Central Bank
Deposit facility 2.25%, raised from 2.00% effective Jun 17, 2026 [212]
The first ECB increase of this cycle; keeps global yields anchored higher
Bank of England
Bank Rate 3.75%, held Jul 30; next decision Sep 17 [209]
Gilt yields still rising to 4.70%, an inflation worry [209]
Bank of Japan
Policy rate 1.00%, raised Jun 16 and held Jul 31 [213]. JGB 10-year 2.97%, above 3% on Sep 2 [211]
Less Japanese demand for Treasuries, so higher U.S. yields
Oil and energy
Elevated Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1; Hormuz flows 4.9 million barrels a day in Q2 [214]
Plus for Texas jobs and royalties; minus for inflation and Fed posture
U.S. dollar
Index 99.16 on Sep 4, down 0.5% over the month and up 1.4% year to date [38]
A weaker dollar makes U.S. property cheaper for foreign buyers
Sources: European Central Bank [212]; Bank of England [209]; Bank of Japan [213]; Japan Ministry of Finance [211]; EIA [214]; Trading Economics [38].
BWE: Market Rates, as of Aug 31, 2026 (Fannie Mae DUS and Freddie Mac conventional fixed-rate ranges by term, DSCR and LTV tier); earlier BWE sheets as of Jan 20, 2026 and Mar 9, 2026 via the Internet Archive
REBusinessOnline: Newmark Brokers Sale of 229-Unit Apartment Complex in Plano (Sep 2, 2026); Affinius Capital Provides Loan for Refinancing of 594-Unit Apartment Community in Fort Worth (Aug 31, 2026); Marcus & Millichap Brokers Sale of 316-Unit Apartment Complex in Fort Worth (Aug 28, 2026); Trademark Completes 321-Unit Vickery Apartments in Downtown Fort Worth (Aug 14, 2026); IPA Negotiates Sale of 188-Unit Apartment Complex in Arlington (Aug 12, 2026)
Apartment List Research: National Rent Report, August 2026 (national rent -0.8% year over year, +0.1% month over month, median $1,390, vacancy index 7.1%)
Disclosures. Compiled Sep 4, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Items marked "Data unavailable" were not published or not captured in the period. Not investment advice.
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