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Monthly multifamily market intelligence

The Pierson Report

Monthly multifamily market intelligence for local, state, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
September 2026
Boston MSA. Multifamily
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The Month in Three Parts

How We Got Here

  • Boston never overbuilt: permitting has run well below typical levels and deliveries slowed through 2025 to 2026, keeping vacancy under 5% [144][159].
  • Nationally, construction fell to 475,000 units, 3.5% of inventory and the lowest since 2013 [27][28].
  • Agency 5-year quotes ran 5.14 to 5.29% in March [40] before the 10-year Treasury climbed from 4.19% on Jan 2 to 4.78% on Sep 4 [1].
  • The Fed committee held rates at 3.50 to 3.75% on Jul 29, but three members voted to raise them [17][18].
  • Boston ranked eighth nationally in 2025 transactions: $3.2 billion across 43 properties at $346,859 per unit, the highest price per unit on the list [121].

Where We Are Now

  • Vacancy fell to 4.9% in Q2; asking rents $2,999, up 1.1% year over year, with the strongest quarterly growth since early 2023 [144][159].
  • Year-to-date absorption of 3,667 units is running ahead of 2,451 delivered [144].
  • Pricing: cap rates expanded modestly to 5.2%, with newer assets well inside that [144].
  • Inflation is still above target: CPI 3.4% in July, PCE 3.7% in July [36][216]. SOFR is 3.66% [35].
  • Pricing gap: 5.2% vs. agency 5-year debt at 6.07% [40], negative leverage of about 87 basis points.
  • The rent-control threat is off the table for now: the Supreme Judicial Court blocked the 2026 ballot initiative in June, so the statewide ban stands [160].

Where We're Headed

  • Rates: futures markets price about a 58% chance of a quarter-point increase on Sep 16, after peaking near 66% following the Jackson Hole speech [217]. If it lands, agency 5-year fixed rates extrapolate to roughly 6.2 to 6.3% [1][40].
  • Supply: about 13,300 units underway, 4.4% of inventory, but completions and permitting are slowing, so the pipeline thins from here [144].
  • Massachusetts employment was flat to negative in 2025 (-0.4% year over year in Q1 2026) and GDP growth is projected at 0.8 to 1.3% [161]; metro population growth slowed to 11,991 people, the weakest post-pandemic year [162].
  • The AvalonBay and Equity Residential merger will force the sale of two downtown towers (1 and 10 Emerson Place) under an Aug 19 settlement with the Attorney General [163].
  • Net: Boston is a low-supply, high-price market with a soft economy. Affordability keeps renters renting; the risk is jobs, not supply.

What It Means for Boston

  1. The rate direction has flipped. Three Fed votes to raise rates and a 10-year Treasury at 4.78% mean the "wait for cuts" plan is over for 2026. Owners with loans maturing in 2026 or 2027 should model a refinance at 6.0 to 6.5% [1][17][18].
  2. Highest price per unit on the list. $346,859 in 2025 sales [121]; cap rates 5.2% against 6.07% debt is about 87 basis points of negative leverage [144][40].
  3. Fundamentals are firm. Vacancy 4.9%, absorption 50% ahead of deliveries, strongest quarterly rent growth since 2023 [144][159].
  4. Rent control is deferred, not dead. The SJC kept it off the 2026 ballot [160]; expect it back in 2028.
  5. The economy is the soft spot. Statewide employment down 0.4% year over year and the slowest population growth since the pandemic [161][162].

Boston Multifamily

Boston is a low-supply, high-price market. Vacancy dipped to 4.9% in Q2, absorption is running 50% ahead of deliveries, and rents posted their strongest quarter since early 2023. Cap rates have drifted up to 5.2%. The soft spots are jobs and population, both flat to slightly negative, and a rent-control fight that has been deferred rather than settled.

Average cap rate
5.2%
Expanded modestly; newer assets tighter
Colliers / Northmarq Q2 2026 [144]
Rent growth
+1.1% YoY
Asking rent $2,999; best quarter since 2023
Colliers Q2 2026 [144]
Occupancy
95.1%
Up in Q2
Colliers Q2 2026 [144]
Population growth
+12K
Metro 4.40M; slowest post-pandemic year
Census via Boston.com [162]

Boston Cap Rate Range by Asset Class

Where deals are clearing. Hover each range.
4%5%6%7% Class A 4.5 to 5% Class B 5.1 to 5.6% Class C 5.8 to 6.6% avg 5.2% debt 6.07%
Cap rate rangeMarket averageAgency loan rate
Sources: Colliers Q2 [144]; CoStar News [164]. Class splits are interpolated around the published 5.2% average.

Boston vs. National Fundamentals

Hover a bar. Negative means rents are falling.
Rent growth, year over year 0%-2%-4%+2% Boston +1.1% U.S. -0.8% Vacancy 0%5%10%15% Boston 4.9% U.S. 4.3 to 8.9%
BostonUnited States
Sources: Colliers [144]; Northmarq [159]; Apartment List [25]; CBRE [26].

Supply Pipeline, U.S. and Boston

The delivery wave is ending.
MetricNationalBostonRead-through
Deliveries382,000 projected for 2026 [28]2,451 units year to date [144]Completions slowing considerably
Under construction475,000 units, 3.5% of inventory [27]About 13,300 units, 4.4% of inventory [144]Permitting well below typical levels
Absorption vs. deliveries362K vs 358K, four quarters [27]3,667 absorbed vs. 2,451 delivered, year to date [144]Demand ahead of supply
2026 outlookPeak then tighten [29]Vacancy tightening; affordability supports rental demand [144]Rent control off the 2026 ballot [160]
Supply pressure by submarketSuburban Route 128 corridor (Reading, Stoughton) active for trades [164][165]Downtown: 1 and 10 Emerson Place to be divested under the AvalonBay-EQR settlement [163]
Price trend$346,859 per unit in 2025 sales, highest on the top-10 list [121]Cap rates expanded modestly to 5.2% [144]

Boston Submarket Snapshot

The largest cities in the Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Aug 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
SubmarketMedian rent
Apartment List, Aug 2026 [207]		Rent, year over year
Apartment List [207]		MF units permitted, 2025
Census BPS [208]		MF units permitted, 2026 through Jul
Census BPS [208]		2026 permit pace vs. 2025
annualized
Boston$2,515+1.3%1,8671,048-4%
Cambridge$3,162+2.3%34270+13x
Framingham$1,932-3.7%1046+689%
Lowell$1,802-1.4%141115+40%
Norwood$2,447-0.7%8277+58x
Quincy$2,295-0.5%112156+139%
Weymouth Town$2,067-0.4%1410-100%

Boston Transactions and Deal Flow

Boston deal flow in August was institutional and suburban, led by Bell Partners and BGO's $96 million purchase of Reading Commons, plus a forced divestiture of two downtown towers under the AvalonBay and Equity Residential merger settlement.

PropertySubmarketUnitsBuyer / SellerPrice / CapReported
Winthrop Center, residential componentDowntown BostonMillennium Partners; $281M PACE financing from Nuveen Green Capital through MassDevelopmentFinancingAug 17, 2026 [234]
Whittenton MillsTaunton390Greystar broke ground; modular redevelopment of a 19th-century mill complexDevelopmentAug 13, 2026 [234]
The Arbella at Bramble HillWorcester123$39M bridge refinancing arranged by JLL; active adult, newly builtFinancingAug 28, 2026 [234]

Multifamily Capital Markets

Agency lending (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) remains the workhorse: a combined $176 billion cap for 2026, half of which must go to affordable housing. As of Aug 31 low-leverage agency loans price in the mid-5s and higher-leverage quotes sit just above 6% [40]. Across all multifamily products, quotes run 5.43% to 6.63% [220]. CBRE put the average multifamily loan spread at 162 basis points in Q2, 15 tighter than a year ago, with lenders competing on price rather than leverage [219]. Bank bridge money runs SOFR plus 225 to 325 basis points, debt funds SOFR plus 300 to 450.

Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend

Freddie Mac indicative 5-year fixed at 1.25x debt coverage and 65% loan-to-value, top of the published range. One source throughout. Hover the points.
6.4% 6.0% 5.6% 5.2% Jan 20 Mar 9 Aug 31 5.42% 5.29% 6.07%
Source: BWE Market Rates [40], one rate sheet at three dates (Jan 20, Mar 9 and Aug 31, 2026). Indicative levels only; Freddie Mac prices each loan individually and does not publish pricing.

Lending Landscape

Programs, caps, and terms relevant to Boston owners.
ItemCurrentSource
Agency 2026 purchase cap$88B each, $176B totalFHFA [5]
Mission-driven minimum50%FHFA [5]
Freddie Mac 5-year fixed, higher leverage (1.25x / 65%)5.92-6.07%BWE, Aug 31 [40]
Fannie Mae 5 / 7 / 10-year, 65% LTV, 1.35x5.56-5.96% / 5.62-6.02% / 5.68-6.08%BWE, Aug 31 [40]
Freddie Mac 5 / 7 / 10-year, 60% LTV, 1.30x5.87-6.02% / 5.92-6.07% / 5.88-6.03%BWE, Aug 31 [40]
Max LTV / min DSCRAgency tiers run to 80% LTV at 1.25x; best pricing at 55 to 65% LTV and 1.35 to 1.55x. Loans actually closing averaged 63.3% LTV and 1.43x in Q2BWE, Aug 31 [40]; CBRE Q2 2026 [219]
Bridge floating, bank / balance sheetSOFR + 225 to 325 bp (about 5.9 to 6.9%)Crittenden [41]
Bridge floating, debt fundSOFR + 300 to 450 bp (about 6.6 to 8.1%)RRA Capital [42]
Multifamily rate range (all products)5.43% to 6.63%Northmarq, Aug 25 [220]
30-year home mortgage (context)6.71%Freddie Mac PMMS, week of Sep 3 [7]

Massachusetts

Massachusetts is trailing the nation. Employment was unchanged year over year in late 2025 and down 0.4% in the first quarter of 2026, and MassBenchmarks projects GDP growth of 0.8 to 1.3%. The Boston metro added only 11,991 residents in 2025, its slowest post-pandemic year. The rent-control ballot question was blocked in June; the statewide ban stands.

MA employment, Q1 2026
-0.4%
Year over year
MassBenchmarks [161]
MA GDP growth, 2026
0.8 to 1.3%
Q2 and Q1 projections
MassBenchmarks [161]
Metro population, 2025
+11,991
Slowest post-pandemic growth; 4.40M
Census via Boston.com [162]
Rent control
Blocked
SJC kept the 2026 initiative off the ballot
Mintz / Ballotpedia [160]

Massachusetts Job Growth

Annual. Hover bars.
0%1%2% MA Q4 2025 0% MA Q1 2026 -0.4% U.S. Q4 2025 0.2% Texas 2026 fcst 2%
Sources: MassBenchmarks / UMass Donahue Institute [161]; Dallas Fed [9].

State-Level Operating Factors

Costs and policy that hit Boston net operating income directly.
FactorStatusRead-through
Property insuranceCoastal wind exposure; premiums rising with the national trendSecondary to taxes and regulation
Property taxBoston values +2.6% to $226.4B in FY25; FY26 roll published; commercial-residential classification shift debate continues [167]Watch the residential-commercial tax split
Population and migrationMetro +11,991 in 2025 to 4.40M, slowest post-pandemic growth [162]Domestic out-migration offsets immigration
RegulationRent-control initiative barred from the 2026 ballot by the SJC; statewide prohibition intact [160]Expect a renewed push in 2028
Peer metros (Q2 2026)Chicago occupancy 94.9%, rents +3.2% [133]. Seattle vacancy 6.7% [122]. Charlotte vacancy 4.0% [99]Boston and Chicago share the low-supply profile

National Rates and the Fed

The Fed held at 3.50 to 3.75% in July with an unusual three-member vote in favor of raising. Futures now put a quarter-point increase at the Sep 15 to 16 meeting at about 58%, after the Jackson Hole speech pushed the odds as high as 66%. The 10-year Treasury closed Sep 4 at 4.78%, its highest of the year, and August payrolls came in at 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%.

10-Year Treasury
4.78%
Up from 4.19% on Jan 2; 4.73% on Aug 28
U.S. Treasury, Sep 4 [1]
Fed Funds Target
3.50 to 3.75%
Held Jul 29. Three votes to raise
Federal Reserve [17]
SOFR
3.66%
Sep 3. Up from 3.61% on Jun 3
NY Fed, Sep 3 [35]
Next Fed Meeting
Sep 15 to 16
Futures price about a 58% chance of an increase
Federal Reserve [17]; CME FedWatch via CNBC [217]
CPI / PCE
3.4% / 3.7%
Jul CPI 3.4% (core 2.5%). Jul PCE 3.7% (core 3.3%)
BLS, Aug 12 [36]; BEA, Aug 26 [216]

The Rate Stack: How a Boston Loan Gets Priced

Stacked from the Fed's policy rate up to what a borrower actually pays. Hover each layer.
Fed Funds midpoint 3.625% +1.16% +1.29% spread 10-year Treasury 4.78% Agency 5-year 6.07% 0%
Policy rate (Treasury)Term premium (Treasury)Lender spreadAll-in loan rate
Sources: Federal Reserve [17]; U.S. Treasury, Sep 4 [1]; BWE rate sheet, Aug 31 [40]. Decomposition is illustrative; spreads vary by leverage, term, and borrower, and a 5-year agency loan is priced off the 5-year index, not the 10-year.

10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today

Why apartments rent: the mortgage rate sets the cost of buying a house, and the gap between it and the Treasury is the part of that cost the market has added since 2022. Monthly averages, percent. Lower panel: mortgage rate minus Treasury, in percentage points. Hover for any month.
10-Year Treasury
4.77%
Daily close, 2026-09-03
FRED DGS10 [191]
30-Year Mortgage
6.71%
Freddie Mac PMMS, week of 2026-09-03
FRED MORTGAGE30US [192]
Spread, latest month
1.93 pts
1980 to date average 1.84 pts
FRED, monthly averages [191][192]
0%4%8%12%16%024198019841988199219962000200420082012201620202024 Spread, percentage points
30-year fixed mortgage (Freddie Mac)10-year TreasurySpread
Sources: FRED series DGS10 [191] and MORTGAGE30US [192], monthly averages of daily and weekly data, refreshed each build (2026-09-04).

Global Backdrop

Global bond yields moved higher again as central banks turned from cutting to tightening. The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.25% in June, the Bank of Japan reached 1.00% for the first time since 1995, and the Japanese 10-year crossed 3% on Sep 2. Energy prices are elevated on Strait of Hormuz supply disruption, which adds to inflation.

10-Year Government Bond Yields

Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
0% 2% 4% 6% United States 4.78% United Kingdom 4.70% Germany 3.40% Japan 2.97%
Sources: U.S. Treasury, Sep 4 [1]; Bank of England, Sep 2 [209]; Deutsche Bundesbank, Sep 4 [210]; Japan Ministry of Finance, Sep 3 [211]. All four are the issuing authority's own published series.

Global Policy and Risk Snapshot

Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into Boston borrowing costs.
FactorStatusWhy Boston cares
European Central BankDeposit facility 2.25%, raised from 2.00% effective Jun 17, 2026 [212]The first ECB increase of this cycle; keeps global yields anchored higher
Bank of EnglandBank Rate 3.75%, held Jul 30; next decision Sep 17 [209]Gilt yields still rising to 4.70%, an inflation worry [209]
Bank of JapanPolicy rate 1.00%, raised Jun 16 and held Jul 31 [213]. JGB 10-year 2.97%, above 3% on Sep 2 [211]Less Japanese demand for Treasuries, so higher U.S. yields
Oil and energyElevated Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1; Hormuz flows 4.9 million barrels a day in Q2 [214]Minus for inflation and Fed posture; no local energy offset
U.S. dollarIndex 99.16 on Sep 4, down 0.5% over the month and up 1.4% year to date [38]A weaker dollar makes U.S. property cheaper for foreign buyers
Sources: European Central Bank [212]; Bank of England [209]; Bank of Japan [213]; Japan Ministry of Finance [211]; EIA [214]; Trading Economics [38].

Sources

Show the 45 sources cited in this edition
  1. U.S. Department of the Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 2026 (10-year constant maturity; 4.78% on Sep 4, 2026)
  2. FHFA: 2026 Multifamily Loan Purchase Caps
  3. Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey
  4. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas: Texas employment forecast strengthens (Jul 17, 2026)
  5. Federal Reserve: FOMC Minutes, July 28 to 29, 2026
  6. CNBC: Divided Fed holds interest rates steady (Jul 29, 2026)
  7. Apartment List: National Rent Report
  8. CBRE: Q1 2026 U.S. Multifamily Figures
  9. Cushman and Wakefield: U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat
  10. Apartments.com: The Supply Slowdown: 2026 Multifamily Outlook
  11. NAHB: Multifamily Market Expected to Cool in 2026
  12. Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), 3.66% for Sep 3, 2026
  13. BLS: Consumer Price Index, July 2026; CNBC: CPI report July 2026
  14. Trading Economics: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), 99.16 on Sep 4, 2026
  15. BWE: Market Rates, as of Aug 31, 2026 (Fannie Mae DUS and Freddie Mac conventional fixed-rate ranges by term, DSCR and LTV tier); earlier BWE sheets as of Jan 20, 2026 and Mar 9, 2026 via the Internet Archive
  16. The Crittenden Report: Bridge lenders are flocking to multifamily
  17. RRA Capital: The bridge lending market floodgates will open in 2026
  18. Northmarq: Charlotte multifamily: absorption gains momentum, deliveries slow, Q2 2026
  19. Multi-Housing News / Yardi Matrix: Top 10 Markets for Multifamily Transactions (2025 data; Mar 11, 2026)
  20. Kidder Mathews: Seattle Multifamily Market Report Q2 2026
  21. Cushman and Wakefield: Chicago Multifamily MarketBeat Q2 2026
  22. Colliers: Greater Boston Multifamily Report Q2 2026; Boston Real Estate Times: Boston multifamily strengthens in Q2
  23. Northmarq: Boston: deliveries slow, fundamentals improve, Q2 2026
  24. Mintz: SJC blocks rent-control initiative from 2026 ballot (Jun 23, 2026); Ballotpedia: Massachusetts Rent Control Initiative (2026)
  25. UMass Donahue Institute: MassBenchmarks Bulletin, May 2026; February 2026
  26. Boston.com (Census data): 2025 marked Boston area's slowest post-pandemic growth (Mar 29, 2026)
  27. Connect CRE: Massachusetts AG orders post-merger sale of two Boston towers (Aug 19, 2026)
  28. CoStar News: Bell Partners buys 204-unit Boston-area complex for $96M
  29. Boston Agent Magazine: TruAmerica acquires The Sto, Stoughton
  30. City of Boston: FY26 Property Taxes; Boston Globe: Assessments and property tax (Feb 8, 2026)
  31. FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis): DGS10, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity (daily; source Federal Reserve H.15)
  32. FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis): MORTGAGE30US, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (weekly; source Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey)
  33. Apartment List Research: Data and rent estimates downloads (city-level rent estimates, rent growth year over year, and vacancy index; monthly)
  34. U.S. Census Bureau: Building Permits Survey, place-level monthly and annual files (units authorized in buildings with 5 or more units)
  35. Bank of England: Interactive Statistical Database, series IUDSNPY, 10-year nominal par gilt yield (4.70% on Sep 2, 2026); Bank Rate 3.75%, held Jul 30, 2026
  36. Deutsche Bundesbank: Daily yield of the current 10-year Federal bond (3.40% on Sep 4, 2026)
  37. Japan Ministry of Finance: Japanese Government Bonds, interest rate (10-year 2.97% on Sep 3, 2026; 3.01% on Sep 2)
  38. European Central Bank: Key ECB interest rates (deposit facility 2.25% effective Jun 17, 2026)
  39. Bank of Japan: Statement on Monetary Policy, Jul 31, 2026; Change in the Guideline for Money Market Operations, Jun 16, 2026 (policy rate 1.00%)
  40. U.S. Energy Information Administration: Brent and WTI spot prices (Brent $96.02, WTI $91.48 on Sep 1, 2026); Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2026 (Strait of Hormuz flows 4.9 million b/d in 2Q26 against 21.6 million b/d in 4Q25; Brent forecast to average about $85/b in 3Q26)
  41. Bureau of Economic Analysis: Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026 (Aug 26, 2026) (PCE 3.7%, core 3.3%)
  42. CNBC: Markets see Warsh endorsing a rate hike in September (Aug 31, 2026); Strong jobs report reignites rate hike fears (Sep 3, 2026), both citing CME FedWatch fed funds futures probabilities
  43. CBRE: Commercial Real Estate Lending Fundamentals Remain Strong in Q2 2026 (Aug 3, 2026) (multifamily loan spread 162 bp, LTV 63.3%, DSCR 1.43x, debt yield 10.2%)
  44. Northmarq: Commercial mortgage rates and spreads, as of Aug 25, 2026 (agency, FHA, life company and CMBS multifamily quotes)
  45. REBusinessOnline: Millennium Partners Receives $281M in PACE Financing for Winthrop Center in Downtown Boston (Aug 17, 2026); Greystar Breaks Ground on 390-Unit Whittenton Mills in Taunton, Massachusetts (Aug 13, 2026); JLL Arranges $39M Loan for 123-Unit Active Adult Complex in Worcester (Aug 28, 2026)
Disclosures. Compiled Sep 4, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Items marked "Data unavailable" were not published or not captured in the period. Not investment advice.
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