Monthly multifamily market intelligence for Seattle, with Washington, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
August 2026
Seattle MSA. Multifamily
Get this monthly report by email.Receive the current Seattle edition now and one report each month. Unsubscribe or change markets any time.
Request a monthly report for another market
Tell us the metro area. If there is enough interest we will add it as a standing monthly edition.
More markets are added as readers request them.
The Week in Three Parts
How We Got Here
Seattle led the nation in 2025 apartment transactions: $4.4 billion across 84 properties and 16,045 units, first on the Yardi Matrix ranking [121].
Nationally, construction fell to 3.5% of inventory, the lowest since 2013 [28].
Agency loan rates bottomed near 5.56% in early June [3] before the 10-year Treasury climbed from about 4.2% to 4.68% [1][14].
The Fed committee held rates at 3.50 to 3.75% on Jul 29, but three members voted to raise them [17][18].
Deliveries peaked in 2025 (8,139 units in the first half alone) and Seattle-area job growth turned negative, averaging a loss of 467 jobs a month [122][125].
Where We Are Now
Supply is falling fast: 3,813 units delivered year to date, down 53% from 8,139 a year earlier, while Q2 absorption of 4,034 units nearly doubled Q1 [122].
Vacancy is 6.7%, down from 7.0% in Q1 and a year ago; average rent $2,250, up 1.6% in the quarter [122].
Average cap rate 5.7%, up 10 basis points in a year, at $239,000 per unit [122][123].
Inflation is still above target: CPI 3.4% in July, PCE 3.7% in June [36][37]. SOFR is 3.65% [35].
Pricing gap: 5.7% vs. agency 5-year debt at 6.20% [4], negative leverage of about 50 basis points.
Jobs are the weak link: the Seattle area has lost an average of 550 jobs a month in 2026 and the city forecast sees little growth through 2027 [125][126].
Where We're Headed
Rates: futures markets price two quarter-point increases (Sep 16 and Dec) [18]. If they happen, agency fixed rates extrapolate to roughly 6.5 to 6.7% by year-end [1][4].
Supply: 19,368 units still under construction, up 5% from a year ago, with the largest towers in Denny Triangle (Seattle House, 1,130 units; WB1200, 1,050) and Overlake (1,088) [123]. Deliveries fall this year, then a second wave lands.
Washington employment is forecast flat: 0.0% to 0.1% in 2026 and 0.3% in 2027 [124]. Population, not payrolls, is carrying demand: the metro added 66,666 residents, 1.6%, in the latest Census year [127].
Transactions stay active: Pacific Urban paid $112 million for A'Capella in Lynnwood and Sea 2 Sky $34 million for Station Nine [128][129].
Net: Seattle's 2026 story is a supply lull inside a jobs stall. Vacancy improves this year; the 2027 pipeline and AI-driven office demand decide whether rents follow.
What It Means for Seattle
The rate direction has flipped. Three Fed votes to raise rates and a 10-year Treasury at 4.68% mean the "wait for cuts" plan is over for 2026. Owners with loans maturing in 2026 or 2027 should model a refinance at 6.25 to 6.75% [1][17][18].
The 2025 transaction leader. $4.4 billion across 84 sales put Seattle first nationally on the Yardi Matrix list [121]; volume continues in 2026 at $239K per unit [122].
A supply lull, not a supply end. Deliveries are down 53% this year, but 19,368 units remain under construction, slightly more than a year ago [122][123].
Jobs are negative. The Seattle area is losing about 550 jobs a month in 2026 and the state forecast is flat through 2027 [124][125]. Underwrite rent growth conservatively.
Costs are steady. King County apartment assessed values have been flat to down since 2022; the 2026 roll rose 5.4% overall [130]. Washington has no state income tax; the Seattle payroll tax is the local watch item [126].
Seattle Multifamily
Seattle led the nation in 2025 apartment transactions and enters late 2026 in a supply lull: deliveries are down 53% year to date while Q2 absorption nearly doubled. Vacancy is 6.7% and rents rose 1.6% in the quarter. The counterweight is employment, which is shrinking in the Seattle area and forecast flat statewide.
Denny Triangle, Overlake, Port Gardner (Everett) carry the largest projects [123]
Lynnwood and Snohomish suburbs active for trades [128][129]
Price trend
$239,000 per unit, flat QoQ; $312 per square foot [122]
Pricing held while cap rates edged up
Seattle Submarket Snapshot
The largest cities in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Jul 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
MF units permitted, 2026 through Jun Census BPS [208]
2026 permit pace vs. 2025 annualized
Auburn
$1,562
-3.7%
0
0
n/a, no 2025 permits
Bellevue
$2,469
+1.3%
293
925
+531%
Bothell
$2,385
-0.3%
143
0
-100%
Federal Way
$1,742
-2.5%
0
0
n/a, no 2025 permits
Kent
$1,724
-1.3%
0
0
n/a, no 2025 permits
Lakewood
$1,499
-0.6%
388
15
-92%
Puyallup
$1,833
-0.7%
308
0
-100%
Redmond
$2,324
+2.3%
1,119
598
+7%
Renton
$2,048
-1.3%
0
0
n/a, no 2025 permits
Seattle
$2,083
-2.7%
3,033
993
-35%
Shoreline
$1,947
-1.2%
11
365
+65x
Tacoma
$1,663
-1.7%
557
613
+120%
Seattle Transactions and Deal Flow
Seattle was the top U.S. transaction market in 2025 [121] and stayed active in August: a $112 million Lynnwood trade, a $34 million suburban buy, and a First Hill value-add sale.
Agency lending (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) remains the workhorse: a combined $176 billion cap for 2026, half of which must go to affordable housing. Low-leverage agency loans price in the mid-to-high 5s as of Aug 24; higher-leverage quotes are in the low 6s. Bank bridge money runs SOFR plus 225 to 325 basis points, debt funds SOFR plus 300 to 450.
Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend
Freddie Mac indicative 5-year fixed. Hover the points.
Sources: Select Commercial [3]; Apartment Loan Store [4]. Different quote sources; treat as indicative.
Lending Landscape
Programs, caps, and terms relevant to Seattle owners.
Washington's labor market has stalled. The state Employment Security Department expects employment growth of about 0.0% to 0.1% in 2026 and 0.3% in 2027, and the Seattle area has been losing about 550 jobs a month this year. Population growth of 1.6% and in-migration are doing the work that payrolls used to.
Seattle sits mid-pack on vacancy with positive quarterly rent growth
National Rates and the Fed
The Fed held at 3.50 to 3.75% in July with an unusual three-member vote in favor of raising. Markets are now pricing two quarter-point increases, September and December. The 10-year Treasury finished Aug 14 at 4.68%.
Sources: Federal Reserve [17]; U.S. Treasury [1]; Select Commercial / Apartment Loan Store (Aug 21) [3][4]. Decomposition is illustrative; spreads vary by leverage, term, and borrower.
10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today
Why apartments rent: the mortgage rate sets the cost of buying a house, and the gap between it and the Treasury is the part of that cost the market has added since 2022. Monthly averages, percent. Lower panel: mortgage rate minus Treasury, in percentage points. Hover for any month.
Sources: FRED series DGS10 [205] and MORTGAGE30US [206], monthly averages of daily and weekly data, refreshed each build (2026-08-26).
Global Backdrop
Global bond yields moved higher this month as traders scaled back expectations for 2026 rate cuts. Energy prices are elevated on Strait of Hormuz supply risk, which adds to inflation.
10-Year Government Bond Yields
Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
Sources: ETF Trends / U.S. Treasury (Aug 14) [1]; Trading Economics [14]; FXStreet [15]; Euronews (Aug 17) [39]. UK and Germany approximate.
Global Policy and Risk Snapshot
Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into Seattle borrowing costs.
Disclosures. Compiled Aug 24, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Items marked "Data unavailable" were not published or not captured in the period. Not investment advice.
Privacy. The feedback bar and subscription form are anonymous unless you choose to enter an email. We store an anonymous first-party browser identifier, the issue you rated, your rating, optional comments, scroll depth and time on page, and a coarse referrer category (search, social, email, direct). We do not store IP addresses; a short-lived one-way hash is used only to limit abuse and is discarded daily. Subscriber emails are held in a mailing list separate from any product waitlist and are used only to send this report.
