Monthly multifamily market intelligence for San Antonio, with Texas, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
August 2026
San Antonio MSA. Multifamily
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The Week in Three Parts
How We Got Here
San Antonio's supply wave peaked in late 2024 with more than 13,000 units delivered in 12 months, about 6% of inventory [71]. Vacancy across all inventory is now the highest of any major U.S. market at about 16% [72].
Rents fell as the wave landed: -3.3% year over year at the trough, easing to about -1.8% by mid-2026 [71][73].
Nationally, construction fell to 3.5% of inventory, the lowest since 2013 [28].
Agency loan rates bottomed near 5.56% in early June [3] before the 10-year Treasury climbed from about 4.2% to 4.68% [1][14].
The Fed committee held rates at 3.50 to 3.75% on Jul 29, but three members voted to raise them [17][18].
Texas job growth returned to its 2% trend in the first half of 2026 after a flat 2025 (0.1%) [8][48].
Where We Are Now
The pipeline has all but emptied: 2,638 units under construction after 12 straight quarters of contraction, with 1,731 delivered year to date [47].
Stabilized occupancy rose to 93.1% with gains in nearly every class [47]; the 16% all-inventory vacancy figure reflects new buildings still leasing up [72].
Rents are still contracting, about -1.8% year over year, as owners use concessions to fill new product [73].
Inflation is still above target: CPI 3.4% in July, PCE 3.7% in June [36][37]. SOFR is 3.65% [35].
Pricing gap: San Antonio average cap rate 5.6% [74] vs. agency 5-year debt at 6.20% [4]. That is negative leverage of about 60 basis points.
Population growth is slowing: +38,000 in the year to July 2025 versus +47,000 the year before, as immigration fell [75].
Where We're Headed
Rates: futures markets price two quarter-point increases (Sep 16 and Dec) [18]. If they happen, agency fixed rates extrapolate to roughly 6.5 to 6.7% by year-end [1][4].
Supply: with 2,638 units underway against a metro of roughly 220,000 units, 2027 deliveries will be a fraction of the 2024 peak [47][71]. Lease-up of the remaining new product is the main drag on the headline vacancy number.
Rents: occupancy is recovering ahead of rent, the same pattern as Houston and DFW. Expect the year-over-year rent figure to approach zero by early 2027 if absorption holds [47][73].
Texas employment forecast is 2.0% (range 1.5 to 2.5%) [9]; Bexar County is forecasting its weakest property-tax revenue year since 2008 as home values dipped, which will pressure local budgets [76].
Net: San Antonio is the latest-cycle of the four metros. The supply problem is solving itself, but with slower population growth the recovery will be gradual rather than sharp [47][72][75].
What It Means for San Antonio
The rate direction has flipped. Three Fed votes to raise rates and a 10-year Treasury at 4.68% mean the "wait for cuts" plan is over for 2026. Owners with loans maturing in 2026 or 2027 should model a refinance at 6.25 to 6.75% [1][17][18].
Two vacancy numbers, both true. 16% across all inventory (including lease-ups) vs. 93.1% stabilized occupancy. The gap is the 2024 delivery wave still filling [72][47].
The pipeline is nearly gone. 2,638 units underway after 12 quarters of decline is the thinnest of any major Texas metro relative to inventory [47]. New competition after 2027 will be minimal.
Demand is the question, not supply. Population growth slowed to +38,000 as immigration fell [75]. Recovery depends on continued in-migration and the military, medical and manufacturing job base.
Costs are flat. Bexar County apartment appraisals rose only 3.8% in 2026 while homes fell 0.1% [77], the mildest tax picture in Texas. Average cap rate 5.6% vs. 6.20% agency debt is still negative leverage [74][4].
San Antonio Multifamily
San Antonio is the latest-cycle of the four Texas metros. The 2024 supply wave left all-inventory vacancy near 16%, the highest of any major U.S. market, but stabilized occupancy has climbed to 93.1% and the construction pipeline has contracted for 12 straight quarters to 2,638 units. Rents are still down about 1.8% year over year.
Average cap rate
5.6%
All classes combined; compressing on sales velocity
Sources: Apartment Loan Store [74]; Northmarq [78]. Class splits are interpolated around the published 5.6% average; no class-level San Antonio quotes were published this period.
San Antonio vs. National Fundamentals
Hover a bar. Negative means rents are falling.
San AntonioUnited States
Sources: Colliers [47]; Apartments.com [72]; MetroSignal [73]; Apartment List [25]; CBRE [26]; Cushman and Wakefield [27].
Improving but still negative; occupancy leading rent
San Antonio Submarket Snapshot
The largest cities in the San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Jul 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
MF units permitted, 2026 through Jun Census BPS [208]
2026 permit pace vs. 2025 annualized
New Braunfels
$1,217
-8.5%
0
0
n/a, no 2025 permits
San Antonio
$1,122
-5.0%
1,401
410
-41%
Seguin
$927
+2.6%
0
0
n/a, no 2025 permits
Universal City
$1,086
-5.0%
0
0
n/a, no 2025 permits
San Antonio Transactions and Deal Flow
San Antonio deal flow remains thin. Northmarq reports cap rates compressing as sales velocity improves [78], but no arm's-length apartment sales were reported inside the last 30 days. The most recent reported trades are shown.
Property
Submarket
Units
Buyer / Seller
Price / Cap
Reported
The Annex
Southwest of downtown
144
Marcus and Millichap brokered; buyer and seller undisclosed; 1969 build, renovated
Agency lending (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) remains the workhorse: a combined $176 billion cap for 2026, half of which must go to affordable housing. Low-leverage agency loans price in the mid-to-high 5s as of Aug 24; higher-leverage quotes are in the low 6s. Bank bridge money runs SOFR plus 225 to 325 basis points, debt funds SOFR plus 300 to 450.
Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend
Freddie Mac indicative 5-year fixed. Hover the points.
Sources: Select Commercial [3]; Apartment Loan Store [4]. Different quote sources; treat as indicative.
Lending Landscape
Programs, caps, and terms relevant to San Antonio owners.
The Texas economy strengthened in the second quarter. Employment grew at a 1.9% annualized pace in the first half after a flat 2025 (0.1%), hiring accelerated in June and July, and the Dallas Fed raised its full-year forecast to 2.0%. Wage pressure is broadening: manufacturers report 4.8% wage growth, the fastest since 2023.
Supports Houston and Permian jobs; indirect San Antonio benefit
Peer metros (Q2 2026)
DFW rents -1.6 to -2.1% YoY, vacancy 7 to 12.2% [22][20]. Austin rents +1.3% in Q2, first gain since 2022 [45]. Houston vacancy 7.1%, down 40 bp; rents -2.3% [46]
All four Texas metros are turning at the same time
National Rates and the Fed
The Fed held at 3.50 to 3.75% in July with an unusual three-member vote in favor of raising. Markets are now pricing two quarter-point increases, September and December. The 10-year Treasury finished Aug 14 at 4.68%.
Sources: Federal Reserve [17]; U.S. Treasury [1]; Select Commercial / Apartment Loan Store (Aug 21) [3][4]. Decomposition is illustrative; spreads vary by leverage, term, and borrower.
10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today
Why apartments rent: the mortgage rate sets the cost of buying a house, and the gap between it and the Treasury is the part of that cost the market has added since 2022. Monthly averages, percent. Lower panel: mortgage rate minus Treasury, in percentage points. Hover for any month.
Sources: FRED series DGS10 [205] and MORTGAGE30US [206], monthly averages of daily and weekly data, refreshed each build (2026-08-26).
Global Backdrop
Global bond yields moved higher this month as traders scaled back expectations for 2026 rate cuts. Energy prices are elevated on Strait of Hormuz supply risk, which helps Texas producers but adds to inflation.
10-Year Government Bond Yields
Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
Sources: ETF Trends / U.S. Treasury (Aug 14) [1]; Trading Economics [14]; FXStreet [15]; Euronews (Aug 17) [39]. UK and Germany approximate.
Global Policy and Risk Snapshot
Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into San Antonio borrowing costs.
Disclosures. Compiled Aug 24, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Items marked "Data unavailable" were not published or not captured in the period. Not investment advice.
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