Monthly multifamily market intelligence for Dallas-Fort Worth, with Texas, national, and global context. Published by NVest Analytics. Every figure is sourced and dated.
August 2026
Dallas-Fort Worth MSA. Multifamily
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The Week in Three Parts
How We Got Here
DFW absorbed a record 2024 to 2025 delivery wave; vacancy across all inventory reached 12.2% as lease-ups piled up [20].
Nationally, construction fell to 3.5% of inventory, the lowest since 2013, as rates rose and rents stalled [28].
Agency loan rates bottomed near 5.56% in early June [3] before the 10-year Treasury climbed from about 4.2% to 4.68% [1][14].
The Fed committee held rates at 3.50 to 3.75% on Jul 29, but three members voted to raise them, the first three-way split in one direction since 2016 [17][18].
Texas job growth returned to its 2% trend in the first half of 2026 after a flat 2025 (0.1%), with wage pressure broadening [8][48].
Where We Are Now
Demand now exceeds supply: U.S. absorption of 362K units over the past four quarters vs. 358K delivered, the first crossover since 2022 [27]. In DFW, demand is outpacing new supply [12].
Rents still negative: DFW rent growth of minus 1.6% to minus 2.1% year over year, with concessions[22][23]. U.S. minus 1.1%, but rising six straight months [25].
Inflation is still above target: CPI 3.4% in July, PCE 3.7% in June against the Fed's 2% goal [36][37]. Short-term rates are steady, with SOFR at 3.65% [35].
Pricing gap: DFW average cap rate 5.5% [19] vs. agency 5-year debt at 6.20% [4]. That is negative leverage of about 70 basis points.
Population is the offset: DFW is number one in the U.S., adding 100K residents and 47K households in a year [12].
Global bond yields are rising in parallel, so nothing abroad is pulling U.S. rates lower [14][15].
Where We're Headed
Rates: futures markets price two quarter-point increases (Sep 16 and Dec) [18]. If they happen, agency fixed rates extrapolate to roughly 6.5 to 6.7% by year-end at current spreads[1][4].
Supply: 2026 U.S. deliveries projected at 382K units, down 27% from last year [28]. The pipeline thins further into 2027.
DFW vacancy is forecast to fall 40 basis points to 6.6% this year with effective rents up 1.8% [12]. National vacancy is expected to peak in 2026 then tighten, with rent recovery lagging [29].
Texas employment forecast is 2.0% (range 1.5 to 2.5%) [9]. Texas FAIR Plan insurance rate changes take effect Sep 1 [10].
Net: fundamentals improve while financing worsens. Expect cap rates to hold or drift up 25 to 50 basis points if the rate increases land, keeping deal volume selective through Q4 [12][18][19].
What It Means for Dallas
The rate direction has flipped. Three Fed votes to raise rates and a 10-year Treasury at 4.68% mean the "wait for cuts" plan is over for 2026. Owners with loans maturing in 2026 or 2027 should model a refinance at 6.25 to 6.75%, not 5.5% [1][17][18].
Negative leverage is the DFW reality. Average cap rate 5.5% vs. agency debt at 6.20%. Deals only work with conviction on rent growth, low leverage, or a low purchase basis, which is exactly why volume is selective [4][19].
Fundamentals are bottoming, not recovered. Absorption now exceeds deliveries nationally and in DFW, and the pipeline is the thinnest since 2013. But DFW rents are still down 1.6 to 2.1% with concessions. Expect vacancy to peak this year and rent growth to turn positive in late 2026 or 2027 [12][22][27][28].
Texas is the demand engine. Number one U.S. metro for population growth, job growth back to the 2% trend, wages rising. The risk is on the cost side: 2026 apartment appraisals up 19.6% in Dallas County and 23.8% in Tarrant County [49], insurance renewals, wage pressure on payroll, and any Fed-driven jump in floating-rate debt [8][9][10][12].
Global factors point the same way. German, British and Japanese government bond yields are all rising, the European Central Bank is on hold, and oil is elevated. Energy strength is a modest Texas offset [14][15][16].
DFW Multifamily
DFW is rebalancing. Demand now outpaces new supply after the 2024 to 2025 delivery wave, and North Texas leads the nation in absolute population growth. But rents remain negative year over year and concessions are widespread. Sources disagree on vacancy; the range is shown rather than a single figure.
Frisco/Prosper and Allen/McKinney most pressured [21]; Fort Worth 3,793 units under construction [44]
North Fort Worth and northern Collin County: 6 to 8 weeks free rent is standard; 60% of DFW communities offer concessions, most since 2020 [43]
Submarket rent trend, trailing 12 months
Uptown Dallas +4%; intown Fort Worth +3%; Denton -6 to -7% [43]
Urban core leading; outer suburbs still digesting supply
DFW Submarket Snapshot
The largest cities in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metro. Rent and rent growth from Apartment List (Jul 2026); multifamily units permitted (buildings of 5+ units) from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permits lead construction by 12 to 24 months. Rows alphabetical; hover a row for detail.
MF units permitted, 2026 through Jun Census BPS [208]
2026 permit pace vs. 2025 annualized
Arlington
$1,253
-3.1%
812
684
+68%
Carrollton
$1,492
-0.3%
1,150
0
-100%
Dallas
$1,329
-1.5%
4,883
2,033
-17%
Denton
$1,175
-9.5%
2,508
757
-40%
Fort Worth
$1,340
-1.6%
3,348
3,357
+101%
Frisco
$1,730
-4.2%
4,562
660
-71%
Garland
$1,273
-5.0%
48
358
+14x
Grand Prairie
$1,383
-1.7%
240
545
+354%
Irving
$1,412
-1.1%
30
0
-100%
McKinney
$1,514
-4.5%
1,391
677
-3%
Mesquite
$1,247
-2.0%
0
0
n/a, no 2025 permits
Plano
$1,643
-2.4%
175
350
+300%
DFW Transactions and Deal Flow
Large-deal velocity slowed in August; sources attribute it to timing, not demand. Institutional buyers are selective after the oversupply of 2024 and 2025. Q1 2026 DFW sales volume was $43.3 million at about $183K per unit [21]. Activity reported in the last 30 days was construction financing rather than sales.
Property
Submarket
Units
Buyer / Seller
Price / Cap
Reported
Aura Brookview
Flower Mound
300
Trinsic Residential Group; $50.1M construction loan from Associated Bank
Agency lending (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) remains the workhorse: a combined $176 billion cap for 2026, half of which must go to affordable housing. Low-leverage agency loans price in the mid-to-high 5s as of Aug 24; higher-leverage quotes are in the low 6s. Bank bridge money runs SOFR plus 225 to 325 basis points, debt funds SOFR plus 300 to 450.
Agency Multifamily Rates, 2026 Trend
Freddie Mac indicative 5-year fixed. Hover the points.
Sources: Select Commercial [3]; Apartment Loan Store [4]. Different quote sources; treat as indicative.
The Texas economy strengthened in the second quarter. Employment grew at a 1.9% annualized pace in the first half after a flat 2025 (0.1%), hiring accelerated in June and July, and the Dallas Fed raised its full-year forecast to 2.0%. Wage pressure is broadening: manufacturers report 4.8% wage growth, the fastest since 2023.
Supports Houston and Permian jobs; indirect DFW benefit
Peer metros (Q2 2026)
Austin rents +1.3% in Q2, first gain since 2022 [45]. Houston vacancy 7.1%, down 40 bp; rents -2.3% YoY [46]. San Antonio occupancy 93.1% [47]
All three Texas metros are turning at the same time as DFW
National Rates and the Fed
The Fed held at 3.50 to 3.75% in July with an unusual three-member vote in favor of raising. Markets are now pricing two quarter-point increases, September and December. The 10-year Treasury finished Aug 14 at 4.68%.
Sources: Federal Reserve [17]; U.S. Treasury [1]; Select Commercial / Apartment Loan Store (Aug 21) [3][4]. Decomposition is illustrative; spreads vary by leverage, term, and borrower.
10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate, 1980 to today
Why apartments rent: the mortgage rate sets the cost of buying a house, and the gap between it and the Treasury is the part of that cost the market has added since 2022. Monthly averages, percent. Lower panel: mortgage rate minus Treasury, in percentage points. Hover for any month.
Sources: FRED series DGS10 [205] and MORTGAGE30US [206], monthly averages of daily and weekly data, refreshed each build (2026-08-26).
Global Backdrop
Global bond yields moved higher this month as traders scaled back expectations for 2026 rate cuts. Energy prices are elevated on Strait of Hormuz supply risk, which helps Texas producers but adds to inflation.
10-Year Government Bond Yields
Where the U.S. sits vs. peers. Hover a bar for context.
Sources: ETF Trends / U.S. Treasury (Aug 14) [1]; Trading Economics [14]; FXStreet [15]; Euronews (Aug 17) [39]. UK and Germany approximate.
Global Policy and Risk Snapshot
Central-bank posture and macro risks that feed into DFW borrowing costs.
Disclosures. Compiled Aug 24, 2026 from publicly available sources; figures are as reported by each source on the date shown and have not been independently verified. Where sources conflict, the range is shown. Items marked "Data unavailable" were not published or not captured in the period. Not investment advice.
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